Cutting to the chase... nothing but attitude.
The expense of developing martian real estate is so high (and letting others do it so abhorrent to the control freaks) that the elites have decided nobody should be allowed to do it without their control.
Mars has 14.4 billion hectares of real estate. Musk, in late September, will announce his plan to send people to mars. Nobody owns mars which stifles its development. But a simple attitude change could open the flood gates.
Suppose we set up a trust for one single purpose. We auction off hectares starting at the proposed first human landing site. All that money goes into the trust. From that trust we only buy transportation tickets, payable on delivery of a live human to the surface of mars near enough to connect with an established colony.
This is a win-win-win-win.
win#1. The transportation company sells tickets at a profit competing with others for the lowest possible price.
win#2. The land speculator sees the value of their property appreciate as more colonists arrive.
win#3. Colonists already on mars have a ready made market for their time and materials to be sold to new comers.
win#4. New comers arrive wealthy by virtue of whatever mass allotment for personal property is included in their transportation ticket.
Before new comers leave earth they can contract with existing colonists for eventual trade when they arrive. 100 kg of disposable personal property would be worth its transportation cost alone.
Cost/kg per lander = ($200m / 2000 kg.) or $100k per kg.
Lander ($100k/kg) x 100 kg, so each colonist arrives a millionaire with a mansion waiting for their arrival and enough resources to follow any individual dream.
It's just attitude that holds us back.
Update: Jim asks, "Who do you envision auctioning off Mars? Who do you envision bidding?"
This is the fundamental problem. Who gets the loot? If not 'me' (whomever me might be) we're just not interested. The trust auctions off mars with all of humanity being the beneficiary. The trust doesn't belong to anyone. It's sole purpose is to buy tickets to mars (or anyplace else a similar trust is set up for using its real estate... but we start with mars.) Who bids? Any person on earth wishing to speculate on the future value of martian real estate. I would also propose the plots to be 40x50 meters for a minimum bid of $1. This provides a minimum of $60b (but in reality much more) at 84% utilization (all property having a minimum frontage of 40 meters on a planetwide road system.) Only individuals could bid on these plots which could then be resold and aggregated in a secondary market. It just requires govt. to acknowledge titles.
I would also recommend (but it's outside the focus of this post)... All governance would be local. A township would be 10x10 km. with each square kilometer choosing a resident as its representative. All laws would sunset after one martian year from the moment of enactment.
It is idiotic to look at it from the perspective of, "I wouldn't pay a dime for a 2000 sq. m. plot of real estate on mars." The only valid perspective is "would others?" Given the govt. support of the validity of title the answer doesn't require an active brain cell because even without it humans have been willing to make similar investments.
9 comments:
This is a win-win-win-win.
Then why aren't you doing it?
I answered that question twice in the post.
It doesn't matter. Once colonists are on mars, these economic realities will take over.
For the record; I don't have enough money to get a lawyer to take me seriously. Without first setting up a trust (try to find a trust lawyer that isn't just another ambulance chaser selling dead peoples furniture) you can't do the rest.
Perhaps (and this is still a long shot) after colonists arrive someone will rediscover my idea? Frankly I've reached the point where all the people that 'know better' can all go to hell.
I answered that question twice in the post.
So you did; I assumed you were excluding yourself from the attitude is holding us back sentiment.
Once colonists are on mars, these economic realities will take over.
Well, economic realities are why there are no colonists on Mars.
I don't have enough money to get a lawyer to take me seriously.
A Kickstarter or Indiegogo campaign maybe? If the simple act of hiring a lawyer is such an insuperable barrier there is scant hope of anyone getting to Mars.
Suppose we set up a trust for one single purpose. We auction off hectares starting at the proposed first human landing site. All that money goes into the trust. From that trust we only buy transportation tickets, payable on delivery of a live human to the surface of mars near enough to connect with an established colony.
Just who is the "we" in this paragraph, Ken? Who do you envision auctioning off Mars? Who do you envision bidding?
If you think the idea has merit why not submit a detailed article advocating it to a website like the Space Review which has much greater traffic than your own blog? You'll not only get valuable feedback but the chances of it coming to the attention of someone with the wherewithal to set it in motion will be greatly increased.
Frankly I've reached the point where all the people that 'know better' can all go to hell.
That's just a face saving way of saying "I give up".
economic realities are why there are no colonists on Mars.
Exactly wrong. That's the entire point of the post. The economic reality is the value already exists on mars to pay for the entire venture including the economic viability of the colonists themselves. Do you really believe a pet rock has more value than a fifth of a hectare when we are just decades away from possessing it? Land on earth had trade value hundreds of years before anybody was living on it. Does a fake deed currently selling at $20 an acre have more value than the real thing? That fake deed rate gives us $300b dollars. How many colonists would that be at $5m per ticket? A minimum of 60,000 which would be a good start.
That's just a face saving way of saying "I give up".
Yep. I'm pretty much done because I no longer care. I will not live long enough to see mars screwed up. The statists are unrelenting. Watch the scramble for control as the realization of martian viability takes hold.
BTW, I've spoken with lawyers and they all say a trust would work, but that they don't do this sort of thing themselves and haven't a clue who they might refer it to.
The world is simply not ready to listen. That will eventually change, but I expect to be long dead by that time.
A single sq. km. with a perimeter road and frontage for every 2000 sq.m. plot could hold 27 320 x 100 m. sections each of 16 plots for a total of 432 plots per sq. km.
Each section would be 3-1/5 hectares (about 8 acres) with a minimum bid of $16.
I am very skeptical about the technology, especially the on-Mars infrastructure *BUT* I definitely believe the fundamentals of your economic analysis are correct. The "mad scramble" you predict WILL occur. In fits and starts, and then stampedes. That's the way we humans always do these sorts of things. NM_FlyBoy
Being skeptical of tech (and human nature) is exactly the right attitude, but fundamentally tech is not the problem because the entire periodic table is waiting for us on mars in diverse abundance. I appreciate your comment and welcome to my blog. Let me know of any topic that really interests you. I find most things fascinating.
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