Tuesday, February 28, 2017

A cheap Lunar Lander for SpaceX lunar tourisim.

SpaceX’s proposed Lunar flyby mission got me thinking (always a bad thing); if Lunar flybys turn out to be a good money-maker, what about Lunar landings? Revenue is revenue, with the added enormous fringe benefit that the architecture to land tourists economically on the Moon could land anything else; cargo, researchers, base components, etc. It would also be helpful for Mars, via both revenue and experience.

What’s lacking currently? A lander, and a service module (the latter to allow Dragon 2 to enter and leave Lunar orbit). 

Operating premise; keep costs down, including R&D. Use existing tech (Dragon2, in this case) as much as possible. That means, in part, keep it as simple as possible. It also means avoiding unneeded mass. It would require lunar orbit rendezvous like Apollo.

First, Dragon 2 needs a propulsion service module to enter and leave lunar orbit. Essentially, a cylinder, slightly smaller in diameter than the F9 (to fit within the Dragon trunk), containing Superdracos (2, for redundancy) and fuel. Theoretically, you should be able to make this with about the same mass ratio as the upper stage. It'll be a short cylinder, mounted behind the trunk, size dictated by needed delta/v and thus tankage capacity. Needed Delta/v is entering low lunar orbit and departing. So, what length and mass? To the rocket equation! A Dragon 2, plus trunk, plus crew, etc, reportedly wet masses about 7385 kg. (In this scenario, the Dragon2 plays the role of the Apollo CSM stack).

The math. It takes about 680 m/s to enter low lunar orbit. About the same for the TEI burn. So, 1360MS. Round up for margins, 1500 m/s. ISP of a SuperDraco is about 240 at sea level. But, the fuel is MMH/NTO, which has a theoretical max of 336, so a superdraco with a vacuum expander bell (with electric actuators for steering) should do a lot better than 240. I'll ballpark it at 275, which I think is conservative. The dry mass of this upper stage should be, using a mass fraction of the S2 (again, I'm being conservative - this service module is just tankage and superdracos, and does not need to support Dragon and Trunk launch loads the way S2 does). I can't find a mass figure, even a ballpark, for a superdraco. So, I'm going to totally ballpark it and take a SWAG, so basically my proposed service module for inside the trunk is a scaled down Stage 2 in mass fraction. S2 Dry mass is 3900 kg. I'll scale that down, as the service module is a lot smaller, with fewer structural demands.

Dragon2 plus internal SD fuel, etc, has reported mass of 7385kg. I'll add 1000kg for crew plus non-life-support consumables, putting it as 8385kg. That, plus dry service module (I've rounded that up to 1000kg - a very poor mass ratio compared to either of the F9 stages), 9385kg. So, per the rocket equation, we have a fuel mass for the service module (to get 1500 m/s delta/v) of 7000kg. That's about 1555 gallons. Even assuming the same density as water (It’s not, it’s denser), it should therefor fit in a cylindrical unit within the trunk.

So, the service module is a cylinder, 1000kg dry mass (It's far smaller than Stage 2, and I'm taking a wild guess as to SuperDraco mass), using 2 Dragon Superdraco engines. That service module (just a propulsion unit; unlike the Apollo SM it does not provide power, O2, etc, to the CM) has another purpose; a derivative of it is the lander.

It'll need a few mods; add legs plus draco thrusters and Dragon avionics. Without cargo, by itself, it has a delta/v of 5.5 kps, more than enough to land on the moon and take off again (you need 3.76 kps for that - Let’s round that up to 4kps for margin.). That delta/v surplus translates directly into cargo mass capacity. It can carry 600kg of payload and still do the job (low lunar orbit, land, and return to orbit). And that’s your crew lander.

You’re probably wondering how, exactly, the crew accommodations on the lander, plus crew, could mass so little. It’s actually easy if you dispense with what you don’t need. It’s a short trip, timewise, so the crew can make it in space suits. That means they don’t need a crew cabin, life support, etc. All they actually need is a lightweight accel couch like in the Apollo CSM, atop the cylinder. A small control panel would be added.  That same lander type, in one-way cargo mode, could land 3400 kg of cargo on the moon - for example a BEAM type module (With a dragon-based life support) for a short term hab, and other supplies. If added capacity is needed on the crew and cargo versions, it could be attained by stretching the tanks; it could land and take off with one superdraco even with an additional couple of tons of fuel, due to the low lunar G. (The stretched version could thus include a stowed expandable hab on the crew lander).

A mission might look like this; a F9 launches with a crew lander and a cargo lander, either stacked or side by side in a shroud, not quite fully fueled (and thus within the F9’s recoverable capacity to LEO. These self-propel to low lunar orbit. A Falcon Heavy launch places a fuel depot (not technically hard, as the fuel is storeable hypergolic.) on a lunar intercept trajectory; onboard regular-Draco thrusters provide thrust to settle it into low Lunar orbit. A second FH launch, Dragon 2 (manned) plus service module, ends with rendezvous in lunar orbit. Crew handles docking plus topping up the two landers. Cargo lander lands the cargo - if successful, a crew descends on the crew lander, stays a few days, then ascends to rejoin Dragon 2 for a return to Earth. Crew lander remains in low lunar orbit, to be refueled from the depot for the next mission.

This architecture is flexible; could be used to set up a base, or have a standby emergency ascent vehicle.

Is this a bit far fetched, and relying on a lot of assumptions and guesses? Yup. I tried to be conservative, but I'm sure I missed some big things. I tried to keep it as cheap as possible, to make it viable for tourism. As part of this, I tried to keep it efficient (such as just couches on the lander, no structure or shell, and no staging, plus possibly reusable.)

A few huge technical challenges/issues; Can a FH push 16385kg (Dragon plus service module) through TLI? If they can, as claimed, throw 10 tons at mars, maybe, but my guess is probably not – there’s just not that much delta/v difference between Mars intercept and Moon intercept points. If they do stretch the second stage, then I'd feel better about it being plausible. Another hard point is Lunar orbital rendezvous; hard to do. Can't use the GPS based system they use for ISS; GPS won't work in lunar orbit. The DragonEye laser docking system would - but navigation to close proximity will probably require either crew or a lot of work on the automated navigation system. Further problem, the fuel depot; storable fuel has been transferred in orbit before (such as to ISS) but I have no idea how hard it would be to accomplish for this. Vastly easier than with cryo fuels, though.

I'm sure there are major flaws I didn't see - and I'd appreciate criticism and correction.

Note: I plagiarized large parts of this from a post on Nasaspaceflight.com. I admit it. I also admit that the poster I plagiarized this from happens to be me.

Friday, February 24, 2017

The right loses when it can't see the forest.

More on MILO.

Hypocrisy of Maher.


The police are not angels, but this is insanity. A group of belligerent teenagers are on a man's property and refuse to leave, making remarks. When the man, a police officer, tries to remove them they attack him en-mass and knock him down. He draws his gun. A shot is fired at nobody and the kids run away.

Poor innocent gang-bangers will now take the mean property owner to court for not letting them abuse him.

Thursday, February 23, 2017

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Could a Single Marine Unit Destroy the Roman Empire?

No. Battles may be won by weapons and training, but wars are won by logistics.

The only possible way they could win would be to rapidly take out the leaders with a clandestine attack, then take their place. They'd better learn to speak latin (or at least greek) first.

Thursday, February 16, 2017

America gets Trump

The media doesn't.

1. “Russia Is Fake News”

Even the media should get this one. The media is so focused on their narrative, that "Trump is somehow colluding with Putin," that they can't understand when he says there is no there, there... thus fake news.

2. “This administration is running like a fine-tuned machine”

What the media describes as botched is simply the media blowing things out of proportion. The stories are damaging only as far as the hostile media expresses outrage. That outrage didn't exist for Obama when he did far worse. Remember how the media continually reported that the Trump campaign was in turmoil? It wasn't. They won.

3. “The leaks are absolutely real; the news is fake”

Completely understandable when you don't live in a fake news bubble. The leaks are real. Stop. Any problem understanding that? The news is fake. What news? The narrative that every time Trump talks to a world leader it's the beginning of WW3. That Trump is not getting along with others is the fake news.

4. “I’m not ranting and raving” 

He wasn't. But the media continues to misconstrue what he says (as described here in.)

5. “Nuclear holocaust would be like no other”

He's trying to make a larger point that the media refuses to acknowledge. Good relations between the two most powerful nations, capable of wiping out life on earth, might have some benefit!?

6. “I am the least anti-Semitic person that you have seen in your entire life”

When you repeatedly, on a daily basis, call Trump an anti-semite Hitler he might feel like responding? The press, rather than dealing in facts, has taken every opportunity to portray Trump (and his family) in the most vile way possible. Frankly, he's been very cool in his responses. I'd be much more directly angry. Trump is showing considerable self control.

7. "The greatest thing I could do is shoot that ship"

It was a hypothetical. He did not indicate he would do it. But for the record, there are times when that is exactly the right response... like when Iranian ships harass our warships... there need to be consequences that deter that sort of dangerous behavior. If it comes to pass, Americans would support it.

8. “Are they friends of yours?”

It's a natural question. He pointed out he'd like to meet with them and others but some will not because it would cause the media to turn on them.

The Americans that voted for Trump get it. The media is confused because they can't see past their own fiction. They need to escape their bubble before they are completely irrelevant.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Shadow government

Remember 3 days of the condor? Have the democrats installed such a shadow govt. inside the Trump admin?

Williamson told TheDCNF in an interview, “I truly believe it’s orchestrated and it’s part of an overall strategy. The objective is to piece-by-piece, dismantle the Trump administration, to discredit Trump.  This is part of an overarching plan.”
This is treason within our govt. orchestrated by Obama who, unlike every other president, did not go away.

This seems really bad.

Another example of the art

Funniest conversation ever!!!

How to fight democrats

Dems have no problem over ruling the people with judges. So...

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Misunderstanding "Peace and Security"

Many people have read the bible prophesy at 1 Thes 5:2,3 thinking it means the world will declare 'peace and security' to have come just before Armageddon. But what if the understanding is a bit different? The thought occurred to me after reading about the latest North Korean missile test.

Instead of being a cry that it had been achieved, could it instead be a cry that it was being threatened?

Which reminds me of the Woody Allen prophesy that, "two countries will go to war and one will win."

In other words... Thes may not be useful predictively, but simply confirmational after the fact.

This is treason

The left would paint Steve Miller as an extremist. Here he is at 17 being extremely truthful.

It has been pointed out (was it by Jerry Pournelle?) that if our education system had been imposed on us it would be an act of war. Yes, it is.

More fake news

Now they can no longer claim that zero terrorists came from the seven muslim ban extreme vetting countries as many with the lefts talking points have been claiming on fake news. Since 9/11...

— Somalia: 20
— Yemen: 19
— Iraq: 19
— Syria: 7
— Iran: 4
— Libya: 2
— Sudan: 1

72 in total while 25 of those became American citizens. Those lefty judges than overruled the clear constitutionally legal authority of the president should be impeached.

Left is mad because Trump is doing what he promised his voters he would do.

Think about this... One of the left's talking points is that deportation will break up families. For any other crime that also breaks up families it would obviously be a losing argument. This is why we need to revise the law to deal with the anchor baby problem which was never intended to be the result of the law. I can hear the uproar now when they do, but now is the only chance they will have to fix this because the majority (contrary to fake news) support the president on immigration law.

Expect 'the news' to crank out lot's of these stories.

Saturday, February 11, 2017

Gamergate elected Trump?

I'm sure it helped. The thing is, the Donald has an ability to expose corruption that we've never seen before. Whatever corruption he himself represents is lost in the noise. We don't expect Trump to be perfect (far from it.) What we expect is for him to fight and we haven't been disappointed so far.

Tuesday, February 7, 2017

A bit of good news

I had an appointment today in Show Low with my kidney doctor. My kidney function improved 3% from my last visit. But I also have a new list of diet restrictions. Potato salad is now out along with other stuff. I was accidentally drinking the right soda since I don't drink Cola (too much phosphorous.)  My anemia is still low at 12 but much improved from 6.

So... I can live with that.

Monday, January 30, 2017

AG Sally Yates fired!

Don't let the door hit ya on the way out!

The sweet spot

I've been using a Samsung flip phone a friend gave me years ago back when my LG flip phone got weird on me. I've been reading reviews on various android smartphones after Verizon burned me a year or so ago looking for the sweet spot (enough capability at a low enough price.) I finally settled on the Moto G4 which is too costly to justify just yet. Then decided to get a $30 android first to dip my toe in the water. I set up a gmail account in preparation, but activation of the phone didn't work.

So my only option seems to be to talk to someone at the only phone store in 50 miles... Verizon!

Update: Apparently it was just some kind of activation backlog. My new phone now works.

Skin in the game

Is he right?

Partly I think. One thing the temporary ban has done is explode and expose the hysterical reaction of the Trump haters. All Trump is doing is following Obama with actions he set in motion. The 7 countries chosen were chosen by the Obama admin. Trump is also forcing congress to engage and do their job (while exposing RINO's in the process.)

Some decent people will be adversely affected, but that's true anytime you try to solve a problem that's been allowed to fester. To the left, Trump is Hitler no matter what he does.

Friday, January 27, 2017

They just don't get it

The good news: Democrats launch scorched-earth strategy against Trump.

This should guarantee the demise of both the Dems and the media. They are totally clueless.

Friday, January 20, 2017

Sunday, January 1, 2017


Saw it tonight... it's what SF is supposed to be... a mirror on humanity with thoughtful questions.