Monday, October 31, 2016

Voting software

Is Hillary smiling for the same reason as Al Capone did during the untouchables movie trial?

This means paper printouts do not guarantee your vote.

Obama violates election fraud protection

Voting machines owned by Clinton Foundation and Soros.

Since before the second election of Obama.

"You didn't build that!"

The best way to lie is to mostly tell the truth. Consider, 'the pencil':

Lie #1. It's existence is too improbable for any one person to comprehend.

Lie #2. No single person could make a pencil.

Lie #3. Without a connection to everything in the universe a pencil couldn't exist (using absurdity to make my point. This is the title argument.)

Lie #3A "Ancestors of the pencil."

The most insidious is... There is no mastermind and economics adjusts the mix. Insidious because it is absolutely true, but said in a way to support the lies.

Economics is all about alternatives. Listening to 'the pencil' we are strongly encouraged to believe that only a very narrow range of alternatives exist, otherwise the pencil couldn't exist.

Let's get rid of the ancestors argument first. Everything does have ancestors, but they aren't any fixed set of things. Whatever they are or aren't has no direct impact on building or not building a pencil.

You do need the materials and tools to build a pencil, but none of these things must come from the far reaches of the world. They only come from the far reaches of the world because economies of scale make it so. If we can grow wood locally and were suddenly cut off from the cheaper wood from remote parts would we stop making pencils or use the wood we have? The same is true of all other materials. So much for the implication that the pencil requires a world economy.

RE: #2. Why not? Single craftsman make complicated things all the time. How is a pencil any different? Again it's about alternatives. It may make sense for many people to specialize in making elements of a pencil, but that is not a requirement. If those specialists are not available it doesn't mean you can't build a pencil. You may certainly lower the price of pencils over time but that's true of everything.

RE #1. A fabrication to support this house of cards argument. A single person could completely understand all the elements required to produce a pencil. Just because they normally don't need to does not make it unfathomable (which is why they throw in the entire universe as ancestors to make their false point. It's like Zeno's paradox. You can't build anything because the universe is unfathomable and you can never beat a turtle with a head start.)

Economics will always adjust the mix. That's why we have pens.

Thursday, October 20, 2016

Can we guess your highest grade level quiz.

Congratulations - you got your doctorate! It's clear that you've put in some solid years in grad school.

Actually I'm a drop-out. Started my life at 16 with a red dodge rt and $50.

It matters

Read it.

Those that ignore the big picture deserve the results.

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Monday, October 17, 2016

They can do it to you.

They cut wikileaks off the internet.

Is Fox news any different?

Glimpse of the Hydra

The Reader's Digest version...

...of this video, edited to it's essentials, should be Trump's campaign ad. right up 'til voting.


Back home

It's good to get back to my apartment (only an hour after when I was scheduled to be.)

Next time, instead of spending 5 days at the hospital I have the option of having the nurses visit me here. I've got some new meds and a monitor.

Thursday, October 13, 2016

Not only was Trump right...

I remember seeing Muslim's cheering on 9-11. I also remember American's having righteous anger but not taking it out on Muslims except for a very few incidences. While listening to Coulter's audio book (part 3, last post) it recounts Stephanopolis accusing Trump of being a liar.

The story is even worse. Muslim's were waiting beforehand to watch it happen with models of the towers! more. more.

Snopes and politifact lied about it.

He's our vulgarian

Part One

Part Two

Part Three

Part Four

Considering this... how is it a horse race?

It isn't. The media is lying to us with false polls...

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Hillary must lose

Woman that are on to the media

Grow the fuck up

Regarding Trump's vulgarity:

Nobody defends it, but it's time somebody understands it from an adult perspective.

Trump was speaking privately to a guy that chuckled at his humor. Has anyone ever heard of Lisa Lampanelli or Bill Burr? People laugh at vulgarity and some crave those laughs.

What happened immediately after? Did Trump act improperly? No.

Dean Martin used to sing, "you can't get arrested for what you're thinking" (watching girls.) What happens when a mind reading machine becomes available?

Men and woman are vulgar. Without the male libido the human race would go extinct.

It is the responsibility of adults not to pursue thought crimes, but punish real crimes.

Plus Trump was not wrong! Rich celebrities do get away with things. Gold diggers do throw themselves at men. Men like touching women. To deny these things is idiocy.

Going to hospital

My blood pressure has become quite erratic so I'm going to spend a few days in the hospital to try to get my medication to the right level. 252/130 is not so good, but the fact that it varies as it does every few minutes is much worse. As my friends when I was a kid used to say, "the worst thing that can happen is you'll live through it." I expect I'll be out in a few days.

Update: It looks like I'm scheduled to be here until Monday. We shall see. I've got to get a BP cuff from the drug store which is about $50. They're talking about me lowering my medication per dose, but more frequent which is why I need to get the cuff. I drove myself to the hospital, but had to call 911 to get somebody to come out with a wheelchair. I really hate being decrepit. I'm too young to be such an old man. Then again, I stopped being young at about 5 years of age. Even in high school, people older than me would call me sir! I used to go to bars and casinos with my [step-]dad when I was 16. I remember one time, when I was 16, my 18 y.o. GF got carded and I didn't. The drinking age in CA was 21.

Sometimes it seems I'm living my life backward, like Merlin, but obviously that's not quite right. It really has been too weird to believe. No, I can't write a book. I wore a suit to the 1st grade. [Step-]dad called me little lord Fauntleroy.

Sunday, October 9, 2016

No intent is required

This is national security where people die.

Hillary loves oppo

Trump must take her out in the opening of the second debate by saying he is not a man easily humbled, but running for president has been a humbling experience. He must include an apology to his supporters and his running mate. He should also carefully include that being a rich celebrity is a bit like a kid in the candy store and everybody knows in their heart it's just a fact that a lot of candy is out there. He was even with another woman when he met his wife. Then he needs to apologize to individuals starting with his family.

Then he needs to relentlessly attack Hillary without mercy making the case that she's the true victimizer of woman.

Black holes don't exist!?

They say the math is conclusive.

Friday, October 7, 2016

Trump is a jerk

There's no denying it, but he's also not wrong. Rich celebrities can get away with up to murder. Everybody knows this which is why he gets a pass that would destroy others.

Trump is vulgar. He's not alone. He thinks he's a comedian. He isn't.

But he's not wrong on a range of subjects.

He's magnitudes better than the only other real choice.

Illegal votes

I read of one county in PA with confirmed voting by illegals and felons. Then I hear that immigration is fast tracking immigrants so they can illegally vote.

If allowed to continue these are the country's last days.

Thursday, October 6, 2016

Reporters abandon logic for bias

I was reading about Trump taking some time off campaigning to prepare for the next debate. So they're asking Pence if Trump is for banning all Muslims. Do you realize the logical ignorance in that question? Trump has also called for 'extreme vetting.' Which these reporters should certainly be aware of. Knowing that, the banning all Muslims question logically answers itself since if true, it would require no vetting at all!

The obvious conclusion, assuming the reporters are not just stupid, is they believe this question embarrasses Trump and suggests the racist narrative they continue to falsely promote.

Discouraged by Musk

Elon's vision and business acumen is making a multiplanetary future closer to possible. But it isn't his job to figure out everything. However he is in a unique position to guide the discussion but isn't really fit for it. His strength is his integrity to his vision. His weakness is his inability to lead/inspire/explain a movement.

Elon himself admits his architecture is wild, but it is a direct result of the numbers associated with his design goals. Some refinements are obvious, such as launching fuel to orbit first before sending crew to orbit. His 100 crew at a time is a claimed requirement to get a large population to mars in a reasonable time, but the real metric to focus on is cost per crew which a large quantity at a time contributes to.

Ironically, bringing cost per crew down too fast might even hurt the colonization of mars (more ahead as to why.)

Admiral Grace Hopper is famous for the expression, "it's better to ask forgiveness than to ask for permission." To colonize mars this thought will probably be essential because there are forces lining up to keep it from happening. Planetary protection is one kind of idiocy that could hold us back, but the biggest issue is the fundamental world view.

Who owns mars? Who will? How does that impact the future? Does it matter?

Is there a connection between these questions and the elephant in the room... funding?

Does it affect the quality of life and growth rate of the colony?

I  believe so. I think the social issues are magnitudes more important than the technical issues. I believe the faith in top down planning will do more harm to colonization than any other single issue. Musk's focus, while understandable, on bringing down cost per crew may be his downfall. Why and how? Because he's really a very traditional business person at heart and is trying to jump past a historically essential element of growth. Things always cost more at the beginning and will in this case as well, but that has good implications for growth.

Colonists will have a certain mass of personal property that will have more value precisely because of the high cost of transportation. Lower that cost too fast and you've robbed those earlier colonists of their assets. Trying to get the colonists to pay for their tickets (inside the box thinking) will limit the number of colonists. Provide them all with free tickets (by thinking outside the box) and the focus correctly goes to those willing to take on the other risks to be colonists.

Mars has all the assets required to pay for every colonists ticket for the first million colonists. All that is required is to realize it. Musk hasn't, nor have any others (even though they have absolutely no argument to reject it.) The only thing they can say is it will not work because people don't believe in it. That's the only thing they get right. But people would believe in it if someone like Musk, who has earned the credibility with his hard work for over a decade, would support it. That's my disappointment.

Saturday, October 1, 2016

Dissecting Mike's great illustration.

From his comment...
Out west somewhere, in the 19th century, is a spot of desert ground where there is absolutely nothing. No one lives there, nothing grows there.
Sounds like the start of a good mars analogy.
Along comes a prospector and finds gold. Within weeks a town has spring up. There are prospectors and miners pulling spendable gold out of the ground.
As long as we don't get hung up on precious metals, I'm with you so far.
There are stores supplying their need, for mining equipment, food, clothing, liquor and entertainment. The owners of those stores mostly borrowed the capital to establish them.
Let's consider this in the context of mars. So we've got some martians that choose mining as their profession and they are successful. We've got other martians that choose to be shopkeepers and are willing to trade with the miners. Where do the shopkeepers get their inventory? There are only two sources: mars and earth. Most of their inventory they will get from other martians that choose to be ISRU manufacturers because that makes the most economic sense, but some things will have to come from earth until martian industry is up to supplying that demand. There are two ways of getting things from earth: direct import/export which is prohibitive, and trade with newly arriving colonists (those trades being initiated before those colonist leave earth, but with transactions finalized directly on mars.)

What about the borrowed capital? That could have happened before or after the shopkeeper left earth, but most lenders will only make a loan if they have collateral on earth providing security. It sucks, but that the reality of the lending business. The good news is the type of things miners need will probably all be producible locally on mars (including basic electronics.)
All those goods, which can not be manufactured on site, are being shipped in in return for the gold which is being shipped out and sold for profit.
This is where the analogy fails. mining equipment, food, clothing, liquor and entertainment will all be produced locally because they can and only that makes economic sense. Some entertainment consists of data which may be imported at a low enough cost to make economic sense. Mining equipment is mostly iron, hydraulics and some electronics all of which makes the most economic sense to produce on mars. No gold export required. The gold stays on mars.
Eventually, the local veins of ore are tapped out. This happened in many places.
Of course, then the miners have the normal economic decisions to make. Search for more minerals or find another means of employment. Since mars industry will have demand for mars minerals perhaps forever, most miners will probably continue with perhaps a focus on other minerals they may find. Almost anything they find will have some demand.
When that happened, the miners and prospectors, no longer able to produce wealth with which to buy the things they needed, moved on, leaving the storekeepers behind.
Nonsense. The single biggest advantage martian miners will have is that almost everything is in demand. Lowest on the list being martian iron which they can't even avoid finding.
The storekeepers could get by for a while, trading with each other, but their main market, and the source of the actual wealth, is gone.
Let's examine that premise a little closer. Would the shopkeepers have miners as their main or only customers? Not likely.
First the ones selling mining equipment close up, absolutely no demand for that.
Do you remember the general store from your history books? Inventory moves through the store and changes over time to reflect changing demand. It would be a really stupid shopkeeper that didn't consider future demand.
Then the others, without the spendable gold coming in, are no longer able to service their debts and obtain new credit to bring in additional goods, not that there is anyone to sell to anyway. So, one by one, they close and move out, leaving a ghost town behind.
The mistake here is the premise. Having a limited source of a high value export is not the correct analogy. Ghost towns are created because of a focused economy. They are avoided by having a diverse economy. To equate mars with any boom town is ridiculous precisely because export is so prohibitive. As the doctor says, "don't do that!"
It is every bit as empty as it was before. No one lives there, because there is absolutely nothing of value to bring people there. Well, that is Mars.
Only true if gold mining is what brought them there. It certainly will not be. That is not the reason people will go to mars precisely because it wll not work. This is known as the false choice fallacy (also a bit of strawman.)
There is absolutely nothing, no thing, that can be produced on Mars and shipped back to the earth and sold at a profit.
Let's agree. That just means that will not be the motivation.
There could be ingots of pure, refined gold just sitting there and they could not be recovered profitably.
Absolutely true with regard to exporting it to earth.
Thus, without an economic basis for its existence, the colony will ultimately devolve into people sitting around twiddling their thumbs, waiting for the next supply ship, until Earth decides not to spend any more money endlessly sending supplies and getting nothing in return.
You have not shown a lack of economic basis. Earth doesn't need to spend a penny. The colonist pay their own way if the ticket price comes down enough and there is another way if it doesn't. My plan pays $5 million per ticket at no cost to the earth or the colonists. It is paid for the way development is always paid for, by the free will of speculators.

The problem with your argument is you're right only if you make assumptions that aren't actual constraints.