Ok, so you're a new colonist on mars. You had a home waiting for you in the center of town on arrival that you bought before leaving earth. You paid $100,000 because that's the going price for such a place. It has two underground stories, a garage for about four vehicle, many large rooms, a 50m hobby farm on top (providing a shirt sleeve garden) and all utilities which provides life support for 3 to 4 long term and dozens on short term (for hosting parties of course) sitting on a half acre plot. You're happy with the place and the community. You need furniture, but that will happen in time. You don't have any vehicles either, everything available has already been snapped up. But you can buy all the parts of a tractor for $8,000 and a friend has already offered to help put it together which will only take about a day or two. He's done it many times before.
But all the good property is in town and your one sq. km. claim is about ten km. away in an undeveloped neighborhood. Time for some horse trading.
You go to the land registry office and find many others there as well. You could have stayed at home and conducted business on your networked computer but you like the personal touch when trading. There are big maps on the walls and you find some property you're interested in. As everyone knows value of property is mostly location, location, location. So you post an offer of 40 acres of your property for 20 acres in town. After shooting the breeze and several cups of coffee most of the morning you've gotten no nibbles, so you adjust the offer to 40 for 10, then finally 30 for 5 which finds you a person willing to trade.
You both have to wait in line to register the transfer but soon another link in a chain of title is on the record and you now have land with a better potential for earlier development. Did you make a good deal? You may not know for years. However, you notice somebody eyeing the map around your old property. She must have a claim that's even farther out. Time for some more horse trading.
Tomorrow you'd better get that tractor built... you've got land to develop.
Economic expansion and liberty, by Mars Maniac in Chief Ken MMinC., and occasional brilliance and humor by CJ.
Friday, February 1, 2013
Thursday, January 31, 2013
Mars myopia
Many people can't see living on mars. "It's too cold." "It's too toxic." "It's too barren." "It's too..."
They have the exact same problem as those described in "Where are the bicycles?"
People live a certain life and can't imagine another.
"It's too cold." Not in any mars home that has enough energy. People freeze on earth in some places when the power goes out and they are not prepared.
"It's toxic." Everything is toxic in the wrong proportions. You fix the proportions.
"It's too barren." Not in a Zubrin hobby farm. Martians will have shirtsleeve gardens. Seeds are perfectly designed for space travel. There will be no shortage of variety on mars.
"It's too..." I don't know. What? Expensive? To get there, yes. That's why you need a plan (see the motivations page above.) But once on mars, most things could be very inexpensive. Because mars has natural resources in abundance. Those could be easy or hard to get. The difference will be how well prepared the martians are. They need industry. Industry isn't magic. It's knowledge. Smart martians will take that knowledge to their new home. Capitalism is about creating machine capital and knowledge capital which makes everything cost less. Martians will not forget to have heavy equipment and other machinery... and machinists to make things. I know a printing operation that never buys any replacement parts (things always break.) Instead, when something breaks, they have machinists that immediately make a better than new replacement part.
People on mars will think differently because they will have to. We need them so WE can see.
They have the exact same problem as those described in "Where are the bicycles?"
People live a certain life and can't imagine another.
"It's too cold." Not in any mars home that has enough energy. People freeze on earth in some places when the power goes out and they are not prepared.
"It's toxic." Everything is toxic in the wrong proportions. You fix the proportions.
"It's too barren." Not in a Zubrin hobby farm. Martians will have shirtsleeve gardens. Seeds are perfectly designed for space travel. There will be no shortage of variety on mars.
"It's too..." I don't know. What? Expensive? To get there, yes. That's why you need a plan (see the motivations page above.) But once on mars, most things could be very inexpensive. Because mars has natural resources in abundance. Those could be easy or hard to get. The difference will be how well prepared the martians are. They need industry. Industry isn't magic. It's knowledge. Smart martians will take that knowledge to their new home. Capitalism is about creating machine capital and knowledge capital which makes everything cost less. Martians will not forget to have heavy equipment and other machinery... and machinists to make things. I know a printing operation that never buys any replacement parts (things always break.) Instead, when something breaks, they have machinists that immediately make a better than new replacement part.
People on mars will think differently because they will have to. We need them so WE can see.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Revised Settlement Charter
This is a revision of an earlier post. Update: Final Charter.
Settlement of the solar system will only happen when the economic motivations encourage it which is the purpose of this document. Members of this charter include any that agree to its terms and join in defending it and its members. You do not need to make a claim to be a member.
Some fundamental principles:
The transportation company may use subcontractors during different phases of transportation, but on their own terms which do not change the terms of this charter. This means only the transportation company can make company claims, but they could then transfer title to subcontractors on whatever terms are agreeable between them.
Update: Possible modification. When ten percent of the land on a body has been claimed (14.4 million sq. km. in the case of mars) the transportation companies total claims are reduced by 10% to 900 sq. km. per colonist claim. When the second 10% has been claimed, the transportation company may only claim 800 and so forth. Finally when 90% has been claimed, the transportation company may only claim 100 sq. km. per colonist claim.
Space Settlement Charter
To expand the human community economic sphere.
Settlement of the solar system will only happen when the economic motivations encourage it which is the purpose of this document. Members of this charter include any that agree to its terms and join in defending it and its members. You do not need to make a claim to be a member.
Some fundamental principles:
- This charter will be a legally binding contract on it's members.
- The only justification required for colonization is that people want to go, assuming they do not force other people to pay for it.
- The chain of ownership of all property begins as part of a claim. Chain of title starts with a claim and determines ownership.
- The universe is currently full of unclaimed property and legally binding claims may be made by members according to the terms of this charter.
- Individual members of this charter shall each make one reasonable claim.
- This charter defines a reasonable claim to be one square kilometer surface area, surrounded by a perimeter road, including all rights of ownership to a reasonable depth (to be determined by members.)
- People are not the property of their governments. They do not require the blessings of their governments to assert their rights.
- Freedom requires consent. Consent must be true and not a fiction imposed by others. Absolute property rights means that no others may impose a tax (by any name) on a property owner without their true consent or by threat or by force.
- The 'public' does not have superior rights to the individual. Anything the 'public' needs can be accomplished by contract between people. Using force beyond freely agreed terms is tyranny.
- There is no such thing as intrinsic value. Value is determined by each individual person which is the basis of all free trade.
- Wealth is created from nothing by free trade.
- Colonization is not likely to be economically feasible for most individuals now or anytime in the foreseeable future. This charter will provide economic motivation for transportation companies to provide both free passage and supplies/equipment to create a positive reinforcement to encourage settlement.
- Colonists are risking their lives. They should not arrive on a new world as slaves or in poverty.
A registry will be established to record claims and chain of title. A member is entitled to only make a single claim (one sq. km.) by possession (a boot print on the claim witnessed) after intent to a claim is established in the registry in an orderly manner. The new owner may sell or lease it in whole or in parts, developed or undeveloped, as soon as the claim is registered and possessed with the condition that any subsection sold must have access to the perimeter road. A member may of course purchase other land from other members that have title by the terms of this charter by agreement without further restrictions.
A transportation company may make thousand(s) of one sq. km. claims, according to the following terms:
To qualify for claims a company must transport colonists free of charge alive to the martian surface with a working space suit and supplies. Supplies for the trip shall be provided by the transportation company free of charge. The space suit becomes the property of the individual colonists and is part of their mass allotment to the surface. Supplies for the surface, other than the space suit, will be purchased before the trip at the colonists expense and discretion. Total mass shall be one metric ton per colonist to the surface which includes the mass of the colonist and all his or her provisions. Each of the company claims, up to 1000 per colonist, must identify the unique individual claim that authorizes the company claim. The transportation company must wait at least one hour between registering each claim.
To be explicit: If a company transports a dozen people, they are entitled to 12,000 sq. km. after all of those colonists make their single claims. It would take at least 17 months for the company to register all those claims; however, they could begin selling plots from claims already made within an hour.
The transportation company may use subcontractors during different phases of transportation, but on their own terms which do not change the terms of this charter. This means only the transportation company can make company claims, but they could then transfer title to subcontractors on whatever terms are agreeable between them.
No claim will be made by any member (this includes any transportation company) that is not in the registry. To do so nullifies their membership and any legal protection by this charter or by other members. The registry will do all it can to avoid this situation.
It is understood that the economic motivation for transportation companies goes up as it's costs go down. This is why competition from many transportation companies is encouraged.
It is also understood that land value goes up with population. This means that in time the economic motivation will only get better and better. Let the land rush begin.
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Using mars as an example; Elon Musk and Robert Zubrin have independently determined that the cost per person of transportation to mars in a few decades should be about $500k per person. We have determined that even at 100 times that cost a transportation company would make a profit selling half acre plots to people on earth for around $100 each. Which means only $1 per plot if Musk or Zubrin are correct. We need look no further for an economic incentive that opens up the solar system.
Can colonist live on mars? Yes, but to avoid a suicide mission they must have the skills for a complete ISRU industrial ecology. This means they must be able to produce on mars the few dozen items required for their own life support and have the capability of making almost anything else. This requires a minimum of about four dozen colonists. Until then, supplies from earth could provide a supplement to the colonists resources. An estimate is that four tons of supplies could be sent to the surface of mars using a Dragon 2 lander for about $150m.
Update: The proposed Mars One lander should deliver 2500 kg to the martian surface for about $190m (including up to four crew.)
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Can colonist live on mars? Yes, but to avoid a suicide mission they must have the skills for a complete ISRU industrial ecology. This means they must be able to produce on mars the few dozen items required for their own life support and have the capability of making almost anything else. This requires a minimum of about four dozen colonists. Until then, supplies from earth could provide a supplement to the colonists resources. An estimate is that four tons of supplies could be sent to the surface of mars using a Dragon 2 lander for about $150m.
Update: The proposed Mars One lander should deliver 2500 kg to the martian surface for about $190m (including up to four crew.)
Update: Possible modification. When ten percent of the land on a body has been claimed (14.4 million sq. km. in the case of mars) the transportation companies total claims are reduced by 10% to 900 sq. km. per colonist claim. When the second 10% has been claimed, the transportation company may only claim 800 and so forth. Finally when 90% has been claimed, the transportation company may only claim 100 sq. km. per colonist claim.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Space profits
If you ignore the billions of dollars companies are already making in space, "nobody can make a profit and it's a complete waste of time" seems to be the reasoning of many when confronted by two space mining companies who's future is unknown.
For those companies to profit they need customers for their product willing to pay more than the cost of producing that product. They can, but not by bringing material to earth. Asteroids provide all the materials found on earth, but the market for that material is in space. They only need to mine one thing to be profitable, water, the rest is gravy.
What's the market for that water? It's not the water itself although that's worth thousands of dollars per pound in orbit; It's the oxygen in water that combines with rocket fuel to provide deltaV. Today that market is small (satellite refueling) but one thing alone would make that market huge... settlement.
Settlement will create a huge demand for mined materials but only if settlement itself is profitable.
It will never happen if colonists have to pay their own way. Even if the ticket were free they would still have to pay for a spacesuit which alone make it prohibitive. So we need a plan that makes transporting those colonists (provided with a spacesuit and supplies) profitable for the transportation company without charging the colonists at all. We do that by providing the space transportation company with a legal asset worth more than the cost of transportation. Legal claim to 1000 sq. km. of land per colonist transported will do that.
Assume it costs $50m per colonist (only by doing it in bulk) to transport them to mars (which has 144,000,000 sq. km. of unclaimed real estate.) That cost is 100 times greater than Elon's claims it will be in the near future. The settlement charter would provide 400,000 quarter hectare (more than half an acre each) unimproved plots for sale by the transportation companies (per colonist transported) to recover their costs. Could they sell a half acre plot in a growing mars community to people on earth for $125 each? I'd buy one or more, so I'm guessing a lot of other people would too.
The value of that land goes up as more people settle on mars. Mars can be settled by millions of people in the near future. All for profit.
The colonists don't arrive broke. They each have legal title on arrival to a 400 quarter hectare claim which over their lifetime can be developed into millions of dollars of improved property. They roll over the cost of development of each half acre plot sold to new colonists (each would otherwise have to develop their own homestead after arriving for about the same cost so it's a no brainer to buy instead) making just a few percent profit over cost of development to each become millionaires.
If that still doesn't sound doable remember we base these calculations on 100 times what Elon and Zubrin calculate to be the ultimate transportation costs. If Elon and Zubrin are right, break even for the transportation companies becomes $1.25 per quarter hectare. They could sell that in an afternoon.
We are not even scratching the surface of profits to be made by all involved. It is going to happen.
For those companies to profit they need customers for their product willing to pay more than the cost of producing that product. They can, but not by bringing material to earth. Asteroids provide all the materials found on earth, but the market for that material is in space. They only need to mine one thing to be profitable, water, the rest is gravy.
What's the market for that water? It's not the water itself although that's worth thousands of dollars per pound in orbit; It's the oxygen in water that combines with rocket fuel to provide deltaV. Today that market is small (satellite refueling) but one thing alone would make that market huge... settlement.
Settlement will create a huge demand for mined materials but only if settlement itself is profitable.
It will never happen if colonists have to pay their own way. Even if the ticket were free they would still have to pay for a spacesuit which alone make it prohibitive. So we need a plan that makes transporting those colonists (provided with a spacesuit and supplies) profitable for the transportation company without charging the colonists at all. We do that by providing the space transportation company with a legal asset worth more than the cost of transportation. Legal claim to 1000 sq. km. of land per colonist transported will do that.
Assume it costs $50m per colonist (only by doing it in bulk) to transport them to mars (which has 144,000,000 sq. km. of unclaimed real estate.) That cost is 100 times greater than Elon's claims it will be in the near future. The settlement charter would provide 400,000 quarter hectare (more than half an acre each) unimproved plots for sale by the transportation companies (per colonist transported) to recover their costs. Could they sell a half acre plot in a growing mars community to people on earth for $125 each? I'd buy one or more, so I'm guessing a lot of other people would too.
The value of that land goes up as more people settle on mars. Mars can be settled by millions of people in the near future. All for profit.
The colonists don't arrive broke. They each have legal title on arrival to a 400 quarter hectare claim which over their lifetime can be developed into millions of dollars of improved property. They roll over the cost of development of each half acre plot sold to new colonists (each would otherwise have to develop their own homestead after arriving for about the same cost so it's a no brainer to buy instead) making just a few percent profit over cost of development to each become millionaires.
If that still doesn't sound doable remember we base these calculations on 100 times what Elon and Zubrin calculate to be the ultimate transportation costs. If Elon and Zubrin are right, break even for the transportation companies becomes $1.25 per quarter hectare. They could sell that in an afternoon.
We are not even scratching the surface of profits to be made by all involved. It is going to happen.
Monday, January 28, 2013
Sunday, January 27, 2013
Boeing to mars?
Replace SLS with FH and it looks like they've been reading my blog. Bigelow modules and ion drives to return the vehicle to earth (they've got them prepositioning the vehicle at EML1) have been discussed not just here but on my previous blogs (one paid for and now gone forever.)
They're describing construction of the I.S.S. as an example for constructing their Mars Transfer Vehicle (M.T.V.) which I call a General Purpose Spaceship (it's just a matter of delta-V and provisions.) Funny how my GPS and their MTV both have more popular uses for those TLAs. But I cringe at the thought of I.S.S. being a construction example.
More from my blog, they would “teleoperate Mars surface assets in real time.”
They're describing construction of the I.S.S. as an example for constructing their Mars Transfer Vehicle (M.T.V.) which I call a General Purpose Spaceship (it's just a matter of delta-V and provisions.) Funny how my GPS and their MTV both have more popular uses for those TLAs. But I cringe at the thought of I.S.S. being a construction example.
More from my blog, they would “teleoperate Mars surface assets in real time.”
Call me extreme
The Canadian Free Press asks the question, "Was Jesus a libertarian?"
Then it characterizes libertarian as doing only those necessary things which individuals cannot reasonably do themselves—like building an interstate highway system or fielding an army.
Then it characterizes libertarian as doing only those necessary things which individuals cannot reasonably do themselves—like building an interstate highway system or fielding an army.
I don't see why federal government should be building interstates. This is the camel's nose. It's how the argument is lost... incrementally. There's a small thing ignored here. It's not just the federal government vs. individuals. That's a false choice. States should build interstates. It just requires them to cooperate.
What about funding? It doesn't come from federal government; it comes from taxpayers.
What if a state can't afford their section of the interstate? If two states want to link up through a state that can't do their part, those two states better work it out. If they bypass that poor state, that poor state can decide if they want to be a part of an interstate system.
None of this requires the involvement of the federal government. But I wouldn't object to them being part of the planning; just don't let them control any state money. Camels should be kept outside the tent where they belong.
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Injection molding
3D printers are great and I've got my eye on a $600 machine but they have drawbacks. Mainly speed if you want to produce something to sell. Let's not forget injection molding which is extremely fast once you make molds which 3D printers are ideal for.
Home models here and here.
Another option.
Home models here and here.
Another option.
Another rant of mine.
What kind of settlement? All I can afford is to be cheerleader. I can only lead a horse to water. If I had the money I'd own a BA330 w/Merlin and have it in orbit. Space tourists welcome.
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Mars One update
Mars One announces they have converted from a corporation to a Dutch not-for-profit foundation whose primary goal is to take humanity to Mars.
As much as I like their pragmatic approach I'll say it again. We can do much better.
As a Foundation, Mars One will be the employer of the astronauts, both in training here on Earth, and those on Mars. In the first half of 2013 Mars One will launch the astronaut selection program. The search will be global. Even before the launch of the application process, Mars One has received more than 1,000 emails from people all over the world who would like to apply.Not free people, but employees. So we have another version of the company town. Which is also a suicide mission as proposed. We can do much better. Update: Suicide mission requires clarification. It is a such because it depends on life support built on earth and sends too few people to manage life support on mars. Once enough people are doing ISRU life support on mars that changes.
As much as I like their pragmatic approach I'll say it again. We can do much better.
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
Things that keep me awake at night
Something about quantum fluctuation bothers me.
When regular particles annihilate they produce energy which has the same total mass as the particles so this balances out and the gravity state of the universe doesn't change. Where does the energy of virtual particles go?
Update: Stargate Atlantis has zero point energy modules that act like super dense batteries that lose their charge over a long period of time. If we ever come up with those they wouldn't be batteries at all, but instead would be tapping into an infinite energy supply although the module itself could degrade which might seem like the same thing.
Mass is equivalent to a finite amount of energy but vacuum contains infinite energy. The latter seems counterintuitive.
What are virtual particles?
First they pop into existence in pairs of particle and antiparticle at any place for a time. The longer they exist the more they [gain mass to] become real particles. Until they annihilate each other out of existence or separate at the event horizon of a black hole (making those fuzzy.) Since the black hole prevents the two particles from popping out of existence one of them is added to our universe while shrinking the hole a bit. Why shrink since you are adding mass to the black hole? Even if particle annihilation occurs it produce a mass equivalent energy.
Popping into existence violates the conservation of matter and energy principle but we're told that's ok for some reason (uncertainty.)
So if our universe is balanced (flat) over time it should gain enough gravity to crunch.
We're supposed to just accept that virtual particles start out massless and gain mass while they exist, until they don't. I'm going to read up a bit and may have more to add... so I can sleep.
When regular particles annihilate they produce energy which has the same total mass as the particles so this balances out and the gravity state of the universe doesn't change. Where does the energy of virtual particles go?
Update: Stargate Atlantis has zero point energy modules that act like super dense batteries that lose their charge over a long period of time. If we ever come up with those they wouldn't be batteries at all, but instead would be tapping into an infinite energy supply although the module itself could degrade which might seem like the same thing.
Mass is equivalent to a finite amount of energy but vacuum contains infinite energy. The latter seems counterintuitive.
Saturday, December 8, 2012
It's the girl and you thought it was the boy
Via a reminder from Rand (or is it from the future?)
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| A bridge re-opening in British Columbia in the early 1940s |
Thursday, December 6, 2012
What's wrong today?
More exposure of our can't do attitude.
...it took 16 days to build the first functioning nuclear reactor. Nowadays it takes an average of about 16 years...
For mars colonization, only those with a can do attitude need apply.
Sunday, December 2, 2012
Space Calculus
Be sure to scroll down and read the updates to this post or you will miss a major important point.
I've given a lot of thought regarding growth rates for my mars settlement proposal to work. Both Brock and George raise some good objections in the regard.
Brock, November 28, 2012, 8:29 am
...there’s no sustainable case here. Real estate is only valuable if people want it.
George, November 27, 2012, 4:58 pm
Without vastly lower launch costs there won’t be speculators for Mars because the third or fourth tier customers won’t be able to afford to get there. If the billionaires go in the first wave and second waves, but the millionaires and regular folks can’t afford the trip, the billionaires are stuck holding land that has no market value. They’d have been better off buying land in the middle of the Sahara.
Growth rate is the issue. For real estate to appreciate there has to be enough people interested to buy for prices to not fall over time. But first let me address the other side of the supply and demand argument...
I've given a lot of thought regarding growth rates for my mars settlement proposal to work. Both Brock and George raise some good objections in the regard.
Brock, November 28, 2012, 8:29 am
...there’s no sustainable case here. Real estate is only valuable if people want it.
George, November 27, 2012, 4:58 pm
Without vastly lower launch costs there won’t be speculators for Mars because the third or fourth tier customers won’t be able to afford to get there. If the billionaires go in the first wave and second waves, but the millionaires and regular folks can’t afford the trip, the billionaires are stuck holding land that has no market value. They’d have been better off buying land in the middle of the Sahara.
Growth rate is the issue. For real estate to appreciate there has to be enough people interested to buy for prices to not fall over time. But first let me address the other side of the supply and demand argument...
144 million sq. km. of martian real estate, if all available for nothing would depress mars real estate values to almost nothing for generations. So my plan limits the supply for all members which also gives strength to their legal ownership claims. Even if others make unreasonable claims they can only do that by paying their own way. My plan provides free transportation but only to those that agree to its terms which restricts the supply of land they may claim and have enforced by other members that agree to the plan. So, enough about supply. Brock and George were addressing the demand issue which is the subject of this post.
Is it sustainable? Let's say it cost $10b to take 4 dozen from the surface of earth to the surface of mars and that that cost never comes down for any following trip. Those 4 dz. go for free and arrive on mars in a space suit with enough supplies to last them until ISRU takes over (75% of that is water, which should be ISRU almost immediately, baked from the soil.) Supplies that are included in that cost can be sent separately to their location on mars for $150m per 4 to 10 ton (Dragon 2 supply ship.)
While we are assuming the cost of transportation doesn't come down, ISRU means what supplies newer colonists bring will upgrade over time. They may very well give up some of their supply mass to older colonists already on mars wanting to buy stuff from earth.
Sustainable then is: will the transportation company be able to recoup $10b cost from the value of 48,000 sq. km. of martian real estate? This gives them over 2 million half acre plots to sell. While they may sell a few sq. km. of this to existing colonist, the only supply of money large enough would be speculators back on earth (that may have no intention of ever traveling to mars.)
It looks like I got the decimal off in my earlier calculations where I came up with $500 per plot. 2 million into 10 billion requires $5000 in profit per plot to cover costs. That's a bummer. $500 coming down over time I could easily see on undeveloped martian real estate. $5000 I only expect from developed property which is not the case for the land the transportation company receives.
Major bummer. This doesn't kill the idea completely, but it does mean I'm going to have to give it some more thought. The fact does remain that if costs do come down the numbers do start to line up and it doesn't have to come down as much as Elon and Zubrin claim they can reach. So, my plan is still a good one. Just not at today's costs as I've been claiming.
The one thing I already know is the solution is not: Allow the transportation company to claim more than 1000 sq. km. per colonist which they transported for free because that reduces the value of the land. It's also not to charge the colonists because that kills the number of colonists which you need to make the plan work. You always want more volunteers than seats available. While you could charge something and still do that it would not be enough to make a difference and I reject the idea that people risking their lives should give up capital they need to help them survive.
So I will have to give it more thought. But for now it looks like cost have to come down one magnitude at least.
How could I have made such a mistake? In a previous article I had calculated a break even for the transportation company of $250 per undeveloped plot and the math was correct. The difference is the cost per colonist to transport them, so let's take a closer look at that. Elon and Zubrin have talked about a future cost per person of $500,000. Mars One talks about a current cost of sending four for $6 billion or $1.5 billion per person. That's quite a difference. So let's look at it from a different perspective.
Let's say it's reasonable to expect speculators on earth to buy all the undeveloped land claimed under the terms of the settlement charter from the transportation company if offered at $100 per quarter hectare plot. That gives us a target transportation cost per person of $40m (400,000 plots x $100.) The good news is that's only 40% of the $100m I used in my calculations to arrive at $250 per plot. It's also much more than Elon's goal so he doesn't have to be totally successful for this plan to work.
So Elon (Brock and George) you only have to get the cost down to about $40m per colonist (80 times greater than Elon's target cost estimate) to have a sustainable plan. Ah, but does it still work for the colonists?
Nothing has changed for them. If there is a profit for the transportation companies more will want to get in on it so over time more people will go, but let's say it doesn't grow for whatever reason but is sustainable at about 100 colonists per year (which it certainly would be.) That means the ratio of new colonists that would buy developed plots from existing colonists would go down every year. That's worst case because if profitable for the transportation companies it would grow over time.
We can assume the colonist could sell their 400+ undeveloped plots for same $100 per undeveloped plot that only gives them a lifetime income of $40,000 which certainly isn't enough. But if they did arrive penniless (some may, most will be smarter than that) they could sell off some every once in a while to maintain their life support costs (and would soon be industrious enough to find other ways in the local economy to support themselves... there will be no shortage of jobs for centuries while the population is growing.)
But most will opted to sell property developed. Supply would exceed demand putting pressure to lower prices. However, that supply would never be too excessive because people are not going to develop land without a profit incentive. So over a lifetime, every martian will still be a millionaire. Thousands are willing to go now without that incentive. Millions will go with it. The future of mars just got brighter. I can keep my blog.
Update 2: Something else just occurred to me. It's still location, location, location. What this means is the colonists would own the preferred plots (undeveloped next to developed) so they could sell those at a premium. Everybody could be happy with that.
Update 3: In another previous post I'd calculated we can send 42 for $3b which would be $72 million per person without optimization that others tell me exists. That's makes the plan doable today (with colonists arriving within a decade.) Now I'm happy! (I'll still get looks, but hey!)
Update: Salvaging the plan after sleeping on it...
How could I have made such a mistake? In a previous article I had calculated a break even for the transportation company of $250 per undeveloped plot and the math was correct. The difference is the cost per colonist to transport them, so let's take a closer look at that. Elon and Zubrin have talked about a future cost per person of $500,000. Mars One talks about a current cost of sending four for $6 billion or $1.5 billion per person. That's quite a difference. So let's look at it from a different perspective.
Let's say it's reasonable to expect speculators on earth to buy all the undeveloped land claimed under the terms of the settlement charter from the transportation company if offered at $100 per quarter hectare plot. That gives us a target transportation cost per person of $40m (400,000 plots x $100.) The good news is that's only 40% of the $100m I used in my calculations to arrive at $250 per plot. It's also much more than Elon's goal so he doesn't have to be totally successful for this plan to work.
So Elon (Brock and George) you only have to get the cost down to about $40m per colonist (80 times greater than Elon's target cost estimate) to have a sustainable plan. Ah, but does it still work for the colonists?
Nothing has changed for them. If there is a profit for the transportation companies more will want to get in on it so over time more people will go, but let's say it doesn't grow for whatever reason but is sustainable at about 100 colonists per year (which it certainly would be.) That means the ratio of new colonists that would buy developed plots from existing colonists would go down every year. That's worst case because if profitable for the transportation companies it would grow over time.
We can assume the colonist could sell their 400+ undeveloped plots for same $100 per undeveloped plot that only gives them a lifetime income of $40,000 which certainly isn't enough. But if they did arrive penniless (some may, most will be smarter than that) they could sell off some every once in a while to maintain their life support costs (and would soon be industrious enough to find other ways in the local economy to support themselves... there will be no shortage of jobs for centuries while the population is growing.)
But most will opted to sell property developed. Supply would exceed demand putting pressure to lower prices. However, that supply would never be too excessive because people are not going to develop land without a profit incentive. So over a lifetime, every martian will still be a millionaire. Thousands are willing to go now without that incentive. Millions will go with it. The future of mars just got brighter. I can keep my blog.
Update 2: Something else just occurred to me. It's still location, location, location. What this means is the colonists would own the preferred plots (undeveloped next to developed) so they could sell those at a premium. Everybody could be happy with that.
Update 3: In another previous post I'd calculated we can send 42 for $3b which would be $72 million per person without optimization that others tell me exists. That's makes the plan doable today (with colonists arriving within a decade.) Now I'm happy! (I'll still get looks, but hey!)
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Paranoia
Sometimes they are out to get you.
I was unaware of the Patton conspiracy other than some passing reference I once read.
Stupid or evil? They always have some justification.
For all those that think 2012 was our last presidential election.
I was unaware of the Patton conspiracy other than some passing reference I once read.
Stupid or evil? They always have some justification.
For all those that think 2012 was our last presidential election.
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Monday, November 19, 2012
Land use law and property value
Capital investment often starts with land ownership.
...a property document that is the visible sign of a vast hidden process that connects all these assets to the rest of the economy.” 70% of all small businesses in the United States are started by equity loans on personal homes. Small, independently-owned businesses employ the majority of people in the U.S.
Thomas Sowell points out that...
Land use laws are just one way that governments can confiscate much of the value of private property without having to compensate the owner.
We know how wealth is created: by individuals working and saving for years without government interference. Constant interference by government reduces wealth and sustains poverty. Being a government dependent is demeaning.
Sunday, November 18, 2012
Drive cross country for free
Gotta Tesla model S? Imagine you drive to a filling station where you charge up for free. Since it takes an hour, suppose a 24 hr. diner or similar entertainment is co-located?
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Thoughts on a lunar base
George has some great ideas here.
A two stage lunar lander with living space in the descent module means with each landing you have more space (even if only for emergency use) for future astronauts. Plus his configuration of engines and ports has lots of merit.
However, a SSTO Red Dragon lander (or the Dragon 2 which I believe will be larger than the current Dragon capsule) will be much cheaper to operate since you do not leave anything behind and only have to refuel it.
Bigelow intends to drop his inflatable to the surface of the moon but I haven't seen any clear concept for that. They're overkill. Regolith provides the radiation shielding anyway, so you can use a much lower mass fully inflatable (Bigelow modules have a hard metal core.) What they need is a ditch digger and skip loader (likely a single rover with bucket on one end and digger on the other) which would probably be attached to the outside of the lander (like the Apollo lunar rovers were.) This rover would be used to dig a trench for an inflated habitat to be covered with regolith. The rover would be operated from inside the lander and later from inside the first habitat.
Assuming no nukes, power is a problem in a two weeks on, two weeks off, solar environment. I would think the best solution would be a lander devoted to providing power with an integrated nuclear power plant.
Once there, development of whatever industrial capacity the moon is capable of supporting would seem to be the next step? Water may only be available in certain locations, although oxygen is available everywhere (and solar power would be enough to extract it during the ~360 hr. day.)
The thing is, the market will really only exist in quantity when people are going someplace besides the moon. Water and oxygen for life support is a very low quantity market. Oxygen for engines of human transports to other places will be the big market if it ever gets started.
A two stage lunar lander with living space in the descent module means with each landing you have more space (even if only for emergency use) for future astronauts. Plus his configuration of engines and ports has lots of merit.
However, a SSTO Red Dragon lander (or the Dragon 2 which I believe will be larger than the current Dragon capsule) will be much cheaper to operate since you do not leave anything behind and only have to refuel it.
Bigelow intends to drop his inflatable to the surface of the moon but I haven't seen any clear concept for that. They're overkill. Regolith provides the radiation shielding anyway, so you can use a much lower mass fully inflatable (Bigelow modules have a hard metal core.) What they need is a ditch digger and skip loader (likely a single rover with bucket on one end and digger on the other) which would probably be attached to the outside of the lander (like the Apollo lunar rovers were.) This rover would be used to dig a trench for an inflated habitat to be covered with regolith. The rover would be operated from inside the lander and later from inside the first habitat.
Assuming no nukes, power is a problem in a two weeks on, two weeks off, solar environment. I would think the best solution would be a lander devoted to providing power with an integrated nuclear power plant.
Once there, development of whatever industrial capacity the moon is capable of supporting would seem to be the next step? Water may only be available in certain locations, although oxygen is available everywhere (and solar power would be enough to extract it during the ~360 hr. day.)
The thing is, the market will really only exist in quantity when people are going someplace besides the moon. Water and oxygen for life support is a very low quantity market. Oxygen for engines of human transports to other places will be the big market if it ever gets started.
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Did they consider new impacts?
Would it take a trillion years to spread life through a volume of space the size of our galaxy?
The milky way is about 100,000 l.y. across. So that would be about 5000 jumps. Meanwhile some from the first jumps would continue outward up to 800 l.y. at a time. That would only be 125 jumps.
So when do we get to meet them?
Gliese 581 is located 20.3 light years from Earth, so it would have taken the rocks about a million years to make the journey.But what if life did take hold and cover a planet and then 100 million years rock hits it spreading life 20 l.y. onward for another million year journey?
The milky way is about 100,000 l.y. across. So that would be about 5000 jumps. Meanwhile some from the first jumps would continue outward up to 800 l.y. at a time. That would only be 125 jumps.
So when do we get to meet them?
Where's the order?
In a press conference today Obama repeated that he gave an order to protect our people in Benghazi.
If he isn't lying, there would be a paper trail. Where's the order? Why isn't the media asking to see it?
If he isn't lying, there would be a paper trail. Where's the order? Why isn't the media asking to see it?
Z-Order
What does Z-Order have to do with voter fraud? What is Z-Order?
Voting machines often/usually have virtual buttons rather than real buttons. This makes it extremely easy to take away a voters choice and replace it with a programmers choice.
A button displayed on a computer screen has two parts, the graphic and the region. The graphic is what you see. The region is what matters. When the graphic is smaller than the region (which is common) you can press the button even if you miss the button by a bit. The region is invisible usually.
What happens when the region of two buttons overlap? That's where Z-Order comes in. One button will be selected and the other will not. It's not random. But here's the thing... buttons are usually placed from top to bottom. When they overlap the last button added, the bottom usually, should be the one selected. If the top button is the one selected this is highly suggestive of an intentional action on the programmers part. It's not an accident.
The party arguing against fraud protection is the party committing the fraud. Eliminate computer voting or make sure the code is transparent to all parties.
Voting machines often/usually have virtual buttons rather than real buttons. This makes it extremely easy to take away a voters choice and replace it with a programmers choice.
A button displayed on a computer screen has two parts, the graphic and the region. The graphic is what you see. The region is what matters. When the graphic is smaller than the region (which is common) you can press the button even if you miss the button by a bit. The region is invisible usually.
What happens when the region of two buttons overlap? That's where Z-Order comes in. One button will be selected and the other will not. It's not random. But here's the thing... buttons are usually placed from top to bottom. When they overlap the last button added, the bottom usually, should be the one selected. If the top button is the one selected this is highly suggestive of an intentional action on the programmers part. It's not an accident.
The party arguing against fraud protection is the party committing the fraud. Eliminate computer voting or make sure the code is transparent to all parties.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Software could make it unbeatable
Drones suck at aerial combat.
...or is it drone operators? Imagine if the drone had a fight mode where software took complete control, until switched off, that was written by game programmers? Top gun meet robo-top gun.
...or is it drone operators? Imagine if the drone had a fight mode where software took complete control, until switched off, that was written by game programmers? Top gun meet robo-top gun.
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Violation of equal protection
This alone is reason to eliminate a politician from holding office.
That people are not outraged by tyranny should be reason to eliminate citizenship of some from this country.
How far will we fall?
That people are not outraged by tyranny should be reason to eliminate citizenship of some from this country.
How far will we fall?
What the stupid party did
They bought the argument that if you're old enough to fight, you're old enough to vote. With what result? The young and ignorant that are not in the military are voting for the demagogues and those in the military are having their votes thrown away.
Nice job stupid party.
Is it possible our founders had reasons for the voting rights they chose?
Nice job stupid party.
Is it possible our founders had reasons for the voting rights they chose?
Monday, November 5, 2012
Immigrants threatened if they don't vote!
First they are registered, then threatened with deportation if they don't vote?!
GOP winning the ground game. The only way the Dems win is if their early voters vote twice. Update: Egg meets face.
Update: Without Florida, Romney is done.
GOP winning the ground game. The only way the Dems win is if their early voters vote twice. Update: Egg meets face.
Update: Without Florida, Romney is done.
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Is the election within the margin of fraud?
Consider...
Voting machines in several swing states switching in only one direction from Mitt to Barack.
How is it that in our high-tech universe of [generally] flawlessly functioning electronic gadgets, voting machines are the only ones prone to human-like “error”?
Voting machines in several swing states switching in only one direction from Mitt to Barack.
How is it that in our high-tech universe of [generally] flawlessly functioning electronic gadgets, voting machines are the only ones prone to human-like “error”?
Exit polls should give a strong indicator of fraud. Will it be enough?
Friday, November 2, 2012
My latest rant
Over in Space Review comments.
Why should we go to mars? Because some people want to and there is no counter argument to that.
"Not on my dime." (Assuming we take away this very powerful counter argument.)
I agree, it should and can be done privately without any tax dollars. Actually, zero govt. involvement (other than limited specific cases that we will all pay for anyway) should be the preference of all colonists. Nothing, other than hardware sent in space belongs to anybody on earth. Common heritage of mankind (Marxism) is beyond stupid. What's beyond stupid? Evil.
Wanting and being able are two very different things. We could easily bring the cost of an individual to orbit down from $20m to $2m by doing one simple thing. Send more of them at a time. A Falcon Heavy could put four dozen in orbit for about $2m each without any reusability which would bring the costs down further.
But that may not ever happen. It may be that cost forever prevent individuals to go of those that want to. Is that a show stopper? No. Not if you have a plan that provides private companies the ROI that covers both the costs and allows and incentivises them to transport colonists at no cost to the colonists. That plan should also not make slaves of the colonist. Liberty should be a given. Is there such a plan? Absolutely.
Mars One, as they themselves describe it, is a suicide plan. They depend on life support from earth not breaking down faster than they can replace it. Not a good idea. There reality show idea may cover about a third of their expected costs. But the important thing they get right is to make a plan that only depends on what private companies can produce now or in the near future. They do not depend on any miracle tech to make their plan work. The closest to miracle tech. is the Dragon 2 lander, but this is a SpaceX product and I would not bet against that happening.
Assume Musk and Zubrin are wrong and the cost never comes down below a million per person. Assume it costs $100m or more per colonist to get them to the surface of mars (which can be done by not sending them a few at a time.) Can a company make a profit sending forty colonists to mars? Which requires at least six or more landers waiting for them in mars orbit and some already on the surface with supplies.
I've calculated it could cost as little as $3b to get 42 to the surface of mars, but let's say it's $10b or $20b.
How do we provide the incentives to a private company? It's not about the cost as much as it is about the profit. "Show me the money" is all it really takes.
Unowned property becomes owned when it is claimed and defended. The good news is those governments that could make a credible claim are part of the OST and legally can not make a claim. Historically, property claims can be made by anyone, from governments to individuals and entities in between like corporations.
The way to make it legal is to be reasonable and set a precedent that others can not ignore. Once owned, property is bought and sold having a chain of title that starts with the claim. Why this is legal is that's the way it has always worked. We can not allow any government or the UN to claim people as chattel belonging to their government. Slavery, by any name, must be abolished. People must exercise their liberty by simply claiming it. Colonization gives free people an opportunity not found on earth.
So a settlement charter that specifies reasonable claims has the potential to provide all the funding required and to do it profitably at today's costs which will go down as time passes and more and more colonist take advantage.
Individual claims should provide about a million dollars to every colonist.
Company claims should provide a thousand times that [for each colonist transported.]
So if it costs the company $10b (including those darn expensive spacesuits that individuals can't afford) they will net $30b over time and faster as more colonists arrive.
Spacesuits will break down. Most martians will hang theirs up in the closet and rarely use them so extras will be available. Another reason for not sending colonists in dribs and drabs.
This is an incremental approach. It's simply a SpaceX, "go directly to orbit", rather than an Xcor, "we'll get to orbit eventually" approach. What make it incremental is keeping profit in mind all along the way.
Why should we go to mars? Because some people want to and there is no counter argument to that.
"Not on my dime." (Assuming we take away this very powerful counter argument.)
I agree, it should and can be done privately without any tax dollars. Actually, zero govt. involvement (other than limited specific cases that we will all pay for anyway) should be the preference of all colonists. Nothing, other than hardware sent in space belongs to anybody on earth. Common heritage of mankind (Marxism) is beyond stupid. What's beyond stupid? Evil.
Wanting and being able are two very different things. We could easily bring the cost of an individual to orbit down from $20m to $2m by doing one simple thing. Send more of them at a time. A Falcon Heavy could put four dozen in orbit for about $2m each without any reusability which would bring the costs down further.
But that may not ever happen. It may be that cost forever prevent individuals to go of those that want to. Is that a show stopper? No. Not if you have a plan that provides private companies the ROI that covers both the costs and allows and incentivises them to transport colonists at no cost to the colonists. That plan should also not make slaves of the colonist. Liberty should be a given. Is there such a plan? Absolutely.
Mars One, as they themselves describe it, is a suicide plan. They depend on life support from earth not breaking down faster than they can replace it. Not a good idea. There reality show idea may cover about a third of their expected costs. But the important thing they get right is to make a plan that only depends on what private companies can produce now or in the near future. They do not depend on any miracle tech to make their plan work. The closest to miracle tech. is the Dragon 2 lander, but this is a SpaceX product and I would not bet against that happening.
Assume Musk and Zubrin are wrong and the cost never comes down below a million per person. Assume it costs $100m or more per colonist to get them to the surface of mars (which can be done by not sending them a few at a time.) Can a company make a profit sending forty colonists to mars? Which requires at least six or more landers waiting for them in mars orbit and some already on the surface with supplies.
I've calculated it could cost as little as $3b to get 42 to the surface of mars, but let's say it's $10b or $20b.
How do we provide the incentives to a private company? It's not about the cost as much as it is about the profit. "Show me the money" is all it really takes.
Unowned property becomes owned when it is claimed and defended. The good news is those governments that could make a credible claim are part of the OST and legally can not make a claim. Historically, property claims can be made by anyone, from governments to individuals and entities in between like corporations.
The way to make it legal is to be reasonable and set a precedent that others can not ignore. Once owned, property is bought and sold having a chain of title that starts with the claim. Why this is legal is that's the way it has always worked. We can not allow any government or the UN to claim people as chattel belonging to their government. Slavery, by any name, must be abolished. People must exercise their liberty by simply claiming it. Colonization gives free people an opportunity not found on earth.
So a settlement charter that specifies reasonable claims has the potential to provide all the funding required and to do it profitably at today's costs which will go down as time passes and more and more colonist take advantage.
Individual claims should provide about a million dollars to every colonist.
Company claims should provide a thousand times that [for each colonist transported.]
So if it costs the company $10b (including those darn expensive spacesuits that individuals can't afford) they will net $30b over time and faster as more colonists arrive.
Spacesuits will break down. Most martians will hang theirs up in the closet and rarely use them so extras will be available. Another reason for not sending colonists in dribs and drabs.
This is an incremental approach. It's simply a SpaceX, "go directly to orbit", rather than an Xcor, "we'll get to orbit eventually" approach. What make it incremental is keeping profit in mind all along the way.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
"What’s a billion anyhow?"
This is the mind set of those spending your money (on a political maneuver.)
He lost me when...
...he bad mouthed Sarah.
Just wish a real conservative / libertarian had his fight in them.
We all do, which is why his name comes up for potential presidential candidate.
One day perhaps we can find someone who isn't a RINO or a fool.
Where is a real leader with real principles?
![]() |
| I didn't like him before this picture, but now I need no further argument |
Just wish a real conservative / libertarian had his fight in them.
We all do, which is why his name comes up for potential presidential candidate.
One day perhaps we can find someone who isn't a RINO or a fool.
Where is a real leader with real principles?
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Demand the Truth about Benghazi
There’s been a special line set up for this: PLEASE CALL AND TELL THEM YOU WANT A PUBLIC HEARING on BENGHAZI before the elections!!! OGR (Office of Govt. Reform) Committee: (202) 225-5074.
The media now has a storm to serve as cover on this issue.
Lies about Gen. Ham.
When Obama called the Seals, they got bin Laden. When the Seals called Obama, they died.
American lives were abandoned while a sitting U.S. president allegedly watched.
The media now has a storm to serve as cover on this issue.
Lies about Gen. Ham.
When Obama called the Seals, they got bin Laden. When the Seals called Obama, they died.
![]() |
| Media Benghazi coverup |
Monday, October 29, 2012
Remember the Benghazi
Obama is an absolute disgrace.
More...
The final call was by the POTUS. No military action to Libya from Italy or elsewhere could have been undertaken without the POTUS signing off. In the end, his “leading from behind” strategy and failure to realize the nature of the situation in Benghazi led to the deaths of at least Tyrone Woods and Glen Doherty. His meeting at 5 p.m. was 5 hours before they were killed. That is why there is a cover up, the POTUS failed to act. The screw up of not having enough security on the ground in Benghazi can be passed off to Charlene Lamb, Hillary, etc., but in the midst of the crisis, when the lives of the 30+ Americans were on the line, the POTUS froze, and Tyrone Woods and Glen Doherty were killed as a result. He can’t pass that blame off on anyone, he was informed of the attack and as a result of the decisions he made in the Oval Office with Biden and Panetta, those two brave Americans died. The Panetta smokescreen does not hold water because US personnel WERE sent into harm’s way, they just weren’t US military personnel. If there was enough info to send the 8 men from Tripoli, why was that not good enough for our military? This is 100% on Obama.
More...
The final call was by the POTUS. No military action to Libya from Italy or elsewhere could have been undertaken without the POTUS signing off. In the end, his “leading from behind” strategy and failure to realize the nature of the situation in Benghazi led to the deaths of at least Tyrone Woods and Glen Doherty. His meeting at 5 p.m. was 5 hours before they were killed. That is why there is a cover up, the POTUS failed to act. The screw up of not having enough security on the ground in Benghazi can be passed off to Charlene Lamb, Hillary, etc., but in the midst of the crisis, when the lives of the 30+ Americans were on the line, the POTUS froze, and Tyrone Woods and Glen Doherty were killed as a result. He can’t pass that blame off on anyone, he was informed of the attack and as a result of the decisions he made in the Oval Office with Biden and Panetta, those two brave Americans died. The Panetta smokescreen does not hold water because US personnel WERE sent into harm’s way, they just weren’t US military personnel. If there was enough info to send the 8 men from Tripoli, why was that not good enough for our military? This is 100% on Obama.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Obama killing middle class and poor?
He should have said something sooner.
Can you borrow millions of dollars at zero interest and loan it out with interest? At 5% that would be $50k a year for each million.
If that were not enough, could you then just print yourself more money?
Einstein once said, "compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe." At least, that's what financial planners like to tell us. What is that force when your savings are earning zero percent?
The real cost of living has about doubled during Obama's term in office. How does that affect the middle class and poor? Does Bernanke have anything to do with that?
Obama claims to represent the non-rich but has been a disaster for them. Why do people keep buying his lies?
Historically the inflation rate has been about 7%. During Obama it's been closer to 20%.
Can you borrow millions of dollars at zero interest and loan it out with interest? At 5% that would be $50k a year for each million.
If that were not enough, could you then just print yourself more money?
Einstein once said, "compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe." At least, that's what financial planners like to tell us. What is that force when your savings are earning zero percent?
The real cost of living has about doubled during Obama's term in office. How does that affect the middle class and poor? Does Bernanke have anything to do with that?
Obama claims to represent the non-rich but has been a disaster for them. Why do people keep buying his lies?
Historically the inflation rate has been about 7%. During Obama it's been closer to 20%.
Ka-Ching
Let's see... $1.6b divided by 12 is... $133m. Hey, I don't know the details of the contract, but somewhere along the line they get paid for this and make a profit. This is in line with $140m they will charge to deliver astronauts. Will it still be $20m per if they don't deliver seven?
Modern Technology: Return of the blacksmith
There is a particular kind of handwaving done by the can't doers. It is the claim that something requires modern technology. Handwaving this way indicates a profound lack of knowledge regarding some fundamental principles. People (for whatever reason) like to complicate things that are fundamentally simple.
Can't doers not only don't understand manufacturing, they don't understand economics either. A basic principle of economics is replacement. Everything has an alternate use and everything has a alternate replacement. For example, corn is used for feed but also for making ethanol. Other things can be used for feed or ethanol. The market determines which (unless politicians get involved.)
What is modern technology? It's specializing and distributing manufacturing for greater efficiency. It is dependent on quality tools to produce the next level of product. But everything produced is done by a person with the skills. What products can be made is more a result of design than capability because good designs make more things capable of being produced.
Forging is a production method that goes back to the earliest times yet is an element of modern production. Forging involved adding pressure to a material (anything from steel to plastic) that is often heated to below liquid temperatures. Pressure can mean hammering, rolling or pressed hydraulically or by screw. Extrusion is a type of forging for creating tubes, wires and beams of any shape or length. It doesn't require modern technology and the machines themselves can be designed to be easily built and repaired.
Unless we're making wire we can ignore the puller and winder. For metal beams (of any shape) cooling just means having a long enough bed for the beam to air cool on. For metal (which holds it's heat) we don't really need heater bands but they are simple enough to include (and you would not want metal cooling in your extruder... what a mess.)
The heater coil is simply a metal turning electrical resistance into heat. For metal extrusion, you don't use a screw as pictured. You use a hydraulic ram. Rather than a hopper (which allows continuous operation... a modern technology!) You would start with a liquid metal cast into a cylinder of the right size for input into the extruder. An extruder can be made up of simple parts and produce beams one at a time, but at a fast enough rate to support a martian industrial ecology. Yes extruders can be really simple.
Having a little bit of capability over time can lead to modern technology levels of production and quality. It's not magic. Extruders themselves are not required to make beams. They just make it a lot easier.
Any shape can be produced depending on the die and closed shapes can be made of open shapes with a couple of simple additional steps.
How do you make a hydraulic press? Do I really have to explain a lathe to you? It is used for making both the tube and the cylinder. You first extrude the cylinder and machine it on the lathe to a required tolerance. You don't actually have to extrude the cylinder because a lathe will also work with just a hunk of metal, but that's very inefficient and wasteful. You also machine the tube on the lathe which can be multiple parts welded together after machining. This also doesn't require any magic modern technology. These parts, all in a days work, provide some of what you need to make a tractor. If you need a dozen tractors, they could all be produced in less than a year with the few dozen colonists available (not all will be involved.) Final assembly from all required parts takes less than a day for each tractor in your shirtsleeve mars garage. Many garages are made possible by these tractors.
BTW, 3D printers are a type of extruder that can replicate itself (with a few extra machined parts.) They do require a computer to operate, but the electronics of the printer itself can be martian ISRU made discrete components.
Can't doers not only don't understand manufacturing, they don't understand economics either. A basic principle of economics is replacement. Everything has an alternate use and everything has a alternate replacement. For example, corn is used for feed but also for making ethanol. Other things can be used for feed or ethanol. The market determines which (unless politicians get involved.)
What is modern technology? It's specializing and distributing manufacturing for greater efficiency. It is dependent on quality tools to produce the next level of product. But everything produced is done by a person with the skills. What products can be made is more a result of design than capability because good designs make more things capable of being produced.
Forging is a production method that goes back to the earliest times yet is an element of modern production. Forging involved adding pressure to a material (anything from steel to plastic) that is often heated to below liquid temperatures. Pressure can mean hammering, rolling or pressed hydraulically or by screw. Extrusion is a type of forging for creating tubes, wires and beams of any shape or length. It doesn't require modern technology and the machines themselves can be designed to be easily built and repaired.
Unless we're making wire we can ignore the puller and winder. For metal beams (of any shape) cooling just means having a long enough bed for the beam to air cool on. For metal (which holds it's heat) we don't really need heater bands but they are simple enough to include (and you would not want metal cooling in your extruder... what a mess.)
The heater coil is simply a metal turning electrical resistance into heat. For metal extrusion, you don't use a screw as pictured. You use a hydraulic ram. Rather than a hopper (which allows continuous operation... a modern technology!) You would start with a liquid metal cast into a cylinder of the right size for input into the extruder. An extruder can be made up of simple parts and produce beams one at a time, but at a fast enough rate to support a martian industrial ecology. Yes extruders can be really simple.
Having a little bit of capability over time can lead to modern technology levels of production and quality. It's not magic. Extruders themselves are not required to make beams. They just make it a lot easier.
Any shape can be produced depending on the die and closed shapes can be made of open shapes with a couple of simple additional steps.
How do you make a hydraulic press? Do I really have to explain a lathe to you? It is used for making both the tube and the cylinder. You first extrude the cylinder and machine it on the lathe to a required tolerance. You don't actually have to extrude the cylinder because a lathe will also work with just a hunk of metal, but that's very inefficient and wasteful. You also machine the tube on the lathe which can be multiple parts welded together after machining. This also doesn't require any magic modern technology. These parts, all in a days work, provide some of what you need to make a tractor. If you need a dozen tractors, they could all be produced in less than a year with the few dozen colonists available (not all will be involved.) Final assembly from all required parts takes less than a day for each tractor in your shirtsleeve mars garage. Many garages are made possible by these tractors.
BTW, 3D printers are a type of extruder that can replicate itself (with a few extra machined parts.) They do require a computer to operate, but the electronics of the printer itself can be martian ISRU made discrete components.
Just too funny
Mann commits scientific misconduct in his legal complaint that he's been falsely accused of committing scientific misconduct.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Hurdles to mars colonization
This paper (pdf) discusses how 'to avoid exploration without settlement' to which I wholeheartedly agree. Right off the bat there is an undeclared assumption...
Until we establish the colonists are able to gather ISRU resources for self sufficiency they are going to have to have resources from earth guaranteed. This doesn't have to be that much. The goal is to get off this dependency ASAP. For example, they will need to have enough water between resupply missions, but it may be that on the first day they establish that enough water can be baked out of the soil so no more water need be supplied from earth. Mars One suggests doing this robotically before the colonists arrive. They may find that it takes more time and they can only provide themselves with part of their water requirements for a while. But the fact is a mars colony paid for with private funds must be totally self-sufficient with regard to essential life support requirements within a few missions or colonization is over.
John is absolutely right. For example, at the end of this post I discuss 3D printing which requires computers that martians must import from earth in order to use. My point is that 3D printer should not be on the critical path of survival. My funding plan assumes existing colonist will probably pay new colonist to include products from earth in their mass allotment which they get for free as part of their passage in my settlement plan.
...it is not clear whether the support of permanent bases would be strong, costly and would last several centuries or if it would be possible to settle the red planet and to establish self-sufficient bases in few years.
Did you catch it? It's that word 'support' which is highly suggestive of government funding. There is an extremely good reason for not involving govt. in any capacity. Free people have the right to make reasonable property claims. They do not need the government to grant permission. Bringing the government into it means giving them control they have no right to. Property claims have the potential of fully funding any level of colonization efforts. So let's assume a private venture without any govt. support. Now the second part of that statement...
...would [it] be possible to settle the red planet and to establish self-sufficient bases in few years[?]Which is addressed in the paper in this way...
There are basically two different strategies. The first one is to use high-technology devices to build the main infrastructures, grow rapidly and achieve partial autonomy, but relying on complex tools that could not be repaired or rebuilt on Mars. The second is to use more simple tools, which would not allow fast growing, but would make it possible to repair or to rebuild objects using local resources.I intend to show this is a false choice and that there is a third way. Mars colonists will need to do all three.
Until we establish the colonists are able to gather ISRU resources for self sufficiency they are going to have to have resources from earth guaranteed. This doesn't have to be that much. The goal is to get off this dependency ASAP. For example, they will need to have enough water between resupply missions, but it may be that on the first day they establish that enough water can be baked out of the soil so no more water need be supplied from earth. Mars One suggests doing this robotically before the colonists arrive. They may find that it takes more time and they can only provide themselves with part of their water requirements for a while. But the fact is a mars colony paid for with private funds must be totally self-sufficient with regard to essential life support requirements within a few missions or colonization is over.
The paper is correct in identifying heavy equipment as a requirement for rapid growth. The mistake is thinking it can't be built on mars with the skills and capability of a few dozen colonists. (Update: Two high school students build tractor.) They absolutely must be able to build and repair equipment using only local resources. They can if the designs are appropriate for their situation. The paper then goes on about some specifics...
Power is required for industry. Let's assume nuclear is not a near term option and no nuke power plant will be sent from earth. They can and will bring light weight, low cost, solar cells from earth to get them started. They can then make more panels ISRU. However, would it be enough for industry? It does not have to be. The requirements for industry do not need to be constant. Instead, enough to complete a process is the requirement. So assuming there is never enough solar available, there would still be enough to make methane and oxygen. That can produce enough energy for any industrial process they may need. They can always make more fuel. With industry they can make the equipment required to use that fuel. This power is also a backup for solar in case of the dreaded months long sand storms. Eventually, without a government to tell them they can't, they will also develop nuclear energy (my bet is on thorium.)
A greenhouse also requires a lot of power for growing plants. The sun can provide part of it, but since it is half as strong as it is on Earth, a complementary and artificial illumination will be deployed to make farming efficient. LEDs or other lighting devices can be used for that purpose.
Another false assumption. The sun can provide all of it. Perhaps mirrors will be used to concentrate it as suggested in his slow development section. Mirrors are simple. Artificial lighting is not a serious solution. Enough production is addressed by having enough farms. The plants will grow.
Long range pressurized rovers will make it possible to go far and explore the surface in an efficient way.The assumption here is these have to be high tech. equipment from earth. Pressurized rovers actually make it more difficult to explore compared to unpressurized since you are less likely to take the time to go through an airlock for marginal possibilities. Instead, the rover can be two low tech parts. A simple electric tractor that does nothing but provide a fifth wheel hitch. This pulls an even simpler trailer that can have many adjustable configurations loaded on it as needed. Both of these could be easy for the colonists to build ISRU.
New structures will be built for storage, habitation, industrial development, research, etc. A bulldozer for clearing and a crane for carrying would probably be chosen to make it easy and fast.Of course they will need bulldozers. But of a design they can build ISRU themselves. They don't need a crane immediately, although it is a simpler thing to build. The dozer itself is a sort of crane.
In order to extract water or to get access to underground mines, a drill is required. Then, if large quantities have to be carried, a truck is also needed.
The rover with trailer is a truck. So is the dozer. A drill is a simple implement powered hydraulically by the dozer.
Automation is a key issue for the maintenance of the base.
No. Dependable systems that do not require computers are.
[Paraphased] There is a risk of losing tools and their corresponding capability.
[Paraphased] Tools wear out.
A risk that must be mitigated by never depending on a tool that can't be produced ISRU.
How many persons are required to develop and maintain a modern industry?
This question includes the same false assumption. Mars does not require modern industry, it requires sufficient industry. Modern technology will develop over time as the colony population grows. To answer the question, based on the industrial ecology needed (which is the only intelligent way to answer that question) as little as a few dozen with the right skills are required. More hands simply increase industrial capacity and capability.
Then we get into the central planning fallacy...
What industrial processes? How much power? How much time? These important questions have to be addressed by engineers to assess the sustainability of a modern Martian base and to determine the feasibility of the fast development scenario.
Yes, certain core processes have to be identified and colonists trained to do them. More likely, colonists will be selected from people like machinists and chemists that already have the skills. Beyond that they just need to be over supplied to start so they can expand their capabilities over time. New colonists can bring new capabilities with them. In a free society, each colonist can concentrate on different things needed.
Now about the slow development section...
All engines are complex and can not be easily repaired.
Simply not true. It is a question of the chosen design.
...it is doubtful that any vehicle could be built on Mars without a modern industry.
False assumption. Again, it is a question of design and industrial ecology.
The simplest vehicle is the bicycle, eventually with three or four wheels. It is perhaps possible to build one using in situ resources and by means of simple industrial processes. However, such a vehicle can not help in transporting heavy loads and moving far and fast.
Thanks for the imagery. Try riding a bicycle in a space suit on a martian sand dune! Martians will be iron workers (15% of soil.) Heavy concentration of iron is toxic to plants so removing the iron is part of the production of soil for farms. The vehicles produced will handle any heavy load. Range can be enhanced to any they require precisely because they will be able to haul heavy loads of fuel. These vehicle are not required to move fast but will certainly be capable of moving at faster than a walk. Somebody is going to build dune buggies just for the fun of it.
However, some electronic devices are part of the life support system, the spacesuit, the rover, etc. They play an important role and they can not be replaced by other tools.
No. That would be a really, really bad design. Computers and electronics coming from earth will not be a part of any essential equipment. With experience, the martian colonists will design and produce a spacesuit suited for their environment and not costing millions of dollars to produce. Fabrics will be an industry some colonists will pursue in a growing free economy aided by chemists and others. Most of the time martians will work in shirt sleeve environments in large environmentally controlled living and working spaces because it's just easier and more efficient. Only a fraction of martians will even need spacesuits (but all will have one hanging in the closet because they arrived in one.)
...it is [not] possible to avoid the use of high-tech devices.
To get to mars this is true. To live on mars this is a false assumption. This is why mars is such a good choice for colonization. Also, much of the electronics they do feel the need for (radios?) can be made from discrete components they can make ISRU.
Finally the paper describes some hurdles...
Access to water; Food production; Gathering ores; Not enough energy for specific needs.
Taking the last first. If they have enough energy to start with, they can grow to any future requirement. They will have more than enough even with just the solar panels they bring with them from earth to do that.
The most important ore is iron. Their biggest problem with that is NOT gathering it. Imagine future kids having the daily chore of gathering soil and dust off boots to produce iron nuggets as part of their homework education. They will need vehicles made from iron to gather other minerals.
For food production they will need water, soil and plastic. Nitrates will probably have to come from the atmosphere at first. Chemistry required. Living soil from earth will be a valuable import.
Water is the first essential (power gives you oxygen or they could just wet the ground.) It appears this will not be a problem but is yet to be determined for sure. We know the water is there. We suspect there is enough in the soil that drilling may not be required.
the quality of spare parts might be uncertain if the metallurgic process is not driven by high tech sensors and devices.
What did the industrial revolution ever do before high tech. came along? This is called manufacturing your own roadblocks. It's all about mindset.
It is difficult to establish a clear strategy for the first stages of the settlement of a Martian base.
That mindset and it's false choices make it appear so. Lose that mindset and it's all rather straight forward. The insistence that capabilities will degrade is just weird. Let's not call it a base either. We are talking about founding a growing, thriving colony of free people.
Finally, the central question...
Is the risk acceptable? Update: I look forward to Rand's discussion of risk.
Yes, but not based on anything discussed in this paper. Let's discuss what's missing.
Funding.
It is unlikely that the cost to individual colonists will come down anytime soon to a point where many or even any could afford to go. However, with the right plan they can go for free and arrive with more than enough resources to pursue their own personal happiness. They are risking their lives to improve humanity. That deserves a reward that covers that risk. A one sq. km. property claim could be worth millions to each colonist and provide a lifetime of investment capital.
Forty-two colonists may be transported to mars for a cost as low as $3b. This is within the range of a single company or group of such. It's not about the cost (which everyone keeps focusing on) it's the return on investment. According to the terms of a legally binding settlement charter (that I propose) they could claim a thousand sq. km. for each colonist they transport (free to the colonist.) Each thousand sq. km. claim is potentially worth a billion dollars. So if they transported 40 colonists at a cost of $10b, they would make a $30b profit as the value of their land matures. This value matures the faster they bring colonists. Which makes land speculation from earth buyers come into play. Mars has 144 million sq. km. of land. They will not run out anytime soon.
Having this correct mindset we can go now. SpaceX will have the Dragon 2 Red Lander ready in about 3 years. Everything else will be ready before that. Will we be ready?
I would like to tackle this paper (pdf) in a future post.
John says, "Some of the high technology available from Earth will be a highly desirable partner to the low tech solutions you are advocating."
I would like to tackle this paper (pdf) in a future post.
John says, "Some of the high technology available from Earth will be a highly desirable partner to the low tech solutions you are advocating."
Friday, October 26, 2012
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Why Romney must win
Obama has already shown a willingness to take credit for things he has done everything in his power to oppose. Now it looks like fracking may turn our whole country around. We don't want him doing a Clinton, taking credit for an economic turnaround he had absolutely nothing to do with.
Meanwhile, on immigration...
More.
Robot poker
Data often lost to Riker, but they were playing by the same rules.
Trading in the real world. I hope this film is enlightening.
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Dragon 2
Interview with Elon...
Anderson: And Dragon, the spacecraft you berthed with the ISS in May, has features that might eventually prepare it for a manned Mars mission.
Musk: Eventually, yes. The thrusters on Dragon are sized so they’ll be able to do launch escape—which means being able to move away from the rocket at a force of approximately 6 g’s. That same thrust level happens to be kind of a good number for supersonic retro-propulsion for landing on Mars.
Anderson: Could you have sent Dragon to Mars instead of the ISS?
Musk: Well, it would have gone very slowly—and when it arrived, it couldn’t have landed. It would have made a crater.
Anderson: The issue is stopping once you get there.
Musk: Version two of Dragon, which should be ready in three years, should be able to do it. But really, if humanity is to become multi-planetary, the fundamental breakthrough that needs to occur in rocketry is a rapidly and completely reusable rocket. In the absence of that, space transportation will remain two orders of magnitude more expensive than it should be.
Anderson: And Dragon, the spacecraft you berthed with the ISS in May, has features that might eventually prepare it for a manned Mars mission.
Musk: Eventually, yes. The thrusters on Dragon are sized so they’ll be able to do launch escape—which means being able to move away from the rocket at a force of approximately 6 g’s. That same thrust level happens to be kind of a good number for supersonic retro-propulsion for landing on Mars.
Anderson: Could you have sent Dragon to Mars instead of the ISS?
Musk: Well, it would have gone very slowly—and when it arrived, it couldn’t have landed. It would have made a crater.
Anderson: The issue is stopping once you get there.
Musk: Version two of Dragon, which should be ready in three years, should be able to do it. But really, if humanity is to become multi-planetary, the fundamental breakthrough that needs to occur in rocketry is a rapidly and completely reusable rocket. In the absence of that, space transportation will remain two orders of magnitude more expensive than it should be.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Talk. Talk. Talk.
It's nice that they got this right...
Otherwise these Bozos will enforce UN control of space...
Thus, at present, an individual acting on his own behalf or on behalf of another individual or a private association or an international organization could lawfully appropriate any part of outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies.
What these pinheads continue to fail to understand is that they're interpretation of the OST DOES NOT MATTER. It has no jurisdiction over free people. Nobody owns anything in space (other than things they put there.) Any person has the legal right to make reasonable claims by possession regardless of what anybody on earth has to say about it, yea or nay. What we need to do is set a precedent and hope others will follow it (they will because it pays the cost and is legally enforced by its members; otherwise it's not) which will open up space because the enormous cost is covered for anybody that wants to risk their lives and go if we do.
Otherwise these Bozos will enforce UN control of space...
...it has been suggested that only the United Nations acting on behalf of the world community as a whole should be entitled to appropriate...
There goes liberty and freedom if we allow that to happen. UN control has worked out so well in the past, hasn't it?
People have been looking for a way to cover the cost of space exploration since the beginning. All they need is a light bulb to go off. Let the transportation company make a reasonable claim (1000 sq. km.) for each colonist (each gets one sq. km. claim) they transport for free. This pays for everything and rewards a colonist with assets they can use to grow the economy of the colony in exchange for risking their lives to expand the economic sphere of humanity.
Related: Land patents.
Why Elon is right that we need a backup for humanity.
Related: Land patents.
Why Elon is right that we need a backup for humanity.
Saturday, October 20, 2012
Can they get there?
"No bucks, no Buck Rogers" is still true today. Mars One thinks they can send four colonists to mars in ten years for $6 billion financed by a reality show. If they produce one episode a week every year that gives them 520 episodes (including best of and other reruns.) So they would have to make $11.5m per episode. According to this calculation ($3.75m) they would only make about a third of that.
How to make up the shortfall? With a show a week they can not expect to get superbowl ratings which would allow them to charge more for commercials. But being a reality show, it should not be too hard for them to increase production to three or more shows a week. They may also want to include some ringers from other reality shows to boost ratings. You need drama and suspense to have a hit.
Is it doable? I think perhaps, but more likely is they will use the reality show as a place to solicit other donors and partners as well. Combine this with extraterrestrial real estate claims and you could cross over the finish line. It would be our first actual new world. We'd have to update all our history books to talk about the old new world. Now you can return to looking at Christina.
How to make up the shortfall? With a show a week they can not expect to get superbowl ratings which would allow them to charge more for commercials. But being a reality show, it should not be too hard for them to increase production to three or more shows a week. They may also want to include some ringers from other reality shows to boost ratings. You need drama and suspense to have a hit.
Is it doable? I think perhaps, but more likely is they will use the reality show as a place to solicit other donors and partners as well. Combine this with extraterrestrial real estate claims and you could cross over the finish line. It would be our first actual new world. We'd have to update all our history books to talk about the old new world. Now you can return to looking at Christina.
The correct term is Yowzer!
Full figured is an insult because it's often used instead of just saying fat.
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| The correct term is Yowzer or just plain Hawt. |
What me worry?
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| South China Sea dispute (Japan and Taiwan, China and USA next to meet.) |
This looks like a Marx brothers and Three Stooges episode.
Friday, October 19, 2012
How terrorism wins
Islamic terrorism is financed by Saudi Arabia (and a tiny percentage of other sources) in the form of a myriad of organization that reach inside our government to corrupt it. Here's how Obama helps that.
Mr. Obama chose to define America's enemy not ideologically but organizationally, as al Qaeda and its affiliates.
A similar tactic to Acorn changing its name and continuing to get tax dollars.
Update: It's worse than that.
Update: It's worse than that.
The revelation that the Obama administration has presided over the development of an arms pipeline to al-Qaeda in Syria — and Biden’s apparently deliberate untruth about it in last week’s debate — is the latest Obama foreign policy coverup.The anti-American president. Update: more.
Government losers
Politicians give out funds, not to help America, but to help themselves.
List of faltering or bankrupt green-energy companies.
Obama, as Mitt said, doesn't pick winners or losers, he picks losers.
List of faltering or bankrupt green-energy companies.
Obama, as Mitt said, doesn't pick winners or losers, he picks losers.
Logical absurdity of 72 cents
Maryland Vos Savant explained this absurdity a long time ago.
If it's true that women earn 72% of men for the same work then only women would be hired.
Sarah exposes other aspects of the myth.
If it's true that women earn 72% of men for the same work then only women would be hired.
Sarah exposes other aspects of the myth.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Exactly like Greece
Death threats and riots if food stamps are taken away. Didn't we see this in Greece?
It is definitely time to get tough with these good for nothings (make them all felons and take away their right to vote.)
It is definitely time to get tough with these good for nothings (make them all felons and take away their right to vote.)
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Crowley was disgusting
In answering the question, who won the debate you have to keep in mind it was a two against one fight. The rules that Crowley violated were...
The moderator will not ask follow-up questions or comment on either the questions asked by the audience or the answers of the candidates during the debate or otherwise intervene in the debate except to acknowledge the questioners from the audience or enforce the time limits, and invite candidate comments during the 2 minute response period.
Romney was correct, but Crowley said he wasn't on camera, but that he was off camera.
She should never be allowed to moderate another debate. I want to see Megyn Kelly or Laura Ingraham as moderator. Would that make the lefties heads blow?
Update: Narrow Obama win is actually huge Romney win. Because Benghazi position of president will now be the news story for next few days.
Ruth Bader Ginsburg weighs in. :-)
Update: Did Obama really say to Candy, “go to the transcript.”
Update: Narrow Obama win is actually huge Romney win. Because Benghazi position of president will now be the news story for next few days.
Ruth Bader Ginsburg weighs in. :-)
Update: Did Obama really say to Candy, “go to the transcript.”
How would he know she had a copy of the Rose garden speech without collusion?
Not just Crowley, but CNN should be barred from debates.
Not just Crowley, but CNN should be barred from debates.
Alternative energy
The president talked about it in the second debate. Nobody should be allowed to say anything about the subject until they read these three classic posts... Energy Scale, Conservation, Feasibility.
In order for "alternate energy" to become feasible, it has to satisfy all of the following criteria:
1. It has to be huge (in terms of both energy and power)
2. It has to be reliable (not intermittent or unschedulable)
3. It has to be concentrated (not diffuse)
4. It has to be possible to utilize it efficiently
5. The capital investment and operating cost to utilize it has to be comparable to existing energy sources (per gigawatt, and per terajoule).
The only sources of energy available to us now that satisfy all five are petroleum, coal, hydro, and nuclear.Instead, those in charge will continue to beat dead horses.
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