Evaluating the MarsOne plan

Mars One plans to land four colonists on mars 7 months after being launched Sept. 14, 2022 for a project cost of $6B. For over a year they've been secretly having discussions with suppliers for all the mission requirements. They intend to cover their costs with a 24/7 reality show among other means.

Mission plan:

2013 - Astronaut selection of 40 to train for ten years.
2014 to Oct. 2016 - Supply mission; First of two landers, each with 2500 kg of food.
2018 - First of two rovers land. Begins site preparations.
2021 - All supplies on mars. Two living units, two life support units, a second supplies unit and another rover. The rovers prepare for the arrival of colonists. At least eight Red Dragons will have made a landing on mars before any manned Dragons make the attempt.
2022 - Water & oxygen produced in sufficient supply to go ahead Sept. 14 crew launch.
2023 - Mars One crew of four lands on mars in April.
2025 - Every two years or so a new crew adds to the colonists numbers bringing new equipment and skills. Included will be two communications relay satellites for almost constant contact (minus two hours per mars year.)

They should talk to Larry Page, when NASA told them their project would need about $10b he told them he would consider $2b, "can you get it down to 1 or 2 billion?"

Is it possible? Our entire plan revolves around using existing, validated technology.

This certainly agrees with my philosophy about it. For example, only SpaceX has a real lander in the works and they have obviously chosen it.

The company plans to deliver food, water and other supplies to Mars through eight unmanned expeditions, including a pair of rovers that will build accommodation inside inflatable units. Further buildings would be created using a brick-making machine and power would come from solar panels.

Unlike my much simpler rovers, these would include a robot arm and digging arm. I also include a brick maker, but made on mars from dirt. I say the first mission should be a dozen colonists rather than just four, but it's better than none. They have an advantage of only killing four if they screw up. But ultimately they hope to have forty colonists apparently? But over ten years rather than the four dozen by the second mission that I've proposed.

I'm concerned that their training is mostly about systems they will bring with them, without consideration of making them self sufficient. These people are employees. I would rather they be free entrepreneurs with the assets to make their own lives. However, this is an interesting funding plan. I hope others join them with plans of their own.

My comment at Rand's latest.

Back to outline