Hurdles to mars colonization

This paper (pdf) discusses how 'to avoid exploration without settlement' to which I wholeheartedly agree. Right off the bat there is an undeclared assumption...

...it is not clear whether the support of permanent bases would be strong, costly and would last several centuries or if it would be possible to settle the red planet and to establish self-sufficient bases in few years.

Did you catch it? It's that word 'support' which is highly suggestive of government funding. There is an extremely good reason for not involving govt. in any capacity. Free people have the right to make reasonable property claims. They do not need the government to grant permission. Bringing the government into it means giving them control they have no right to. Property claims have the potential of fully funding any level of colonization efforts. So let's assume a private venture without any govt. support. Now the second part of that statement...

...would [it] be possible to settle the red planet and to establish self-sufficient bases in few years[?]

Which is addressed in the paper in this way...

There are basically two different strategies. The first one is to use high-technology devices to build the main infrastructures, grow rapidly and achieve partial autonomy, but relying on complex tools that could not be repaired or rebuilt on Mars. The second is to use more simple tools, which would not allow fast growing, but would make it possible to repair or to rebuild objects using local resources.

I intend to show this is a false choice and that there is a third way. Mars colonists will need to do all three.

Until we establish the colonists are able to gather ISRU resources for self sufficiency they are going to have to have resources from earth guaranteed. This doesn't have to be that much. The goal is to get off this dependency ASAP. For example, they will need to have enough water between resupply missions, but it may be that on the first day they establish that enough water can be baked out of the soil so no more water need be supplied from earth. Mars One suggests doing this robotically before the colonists arrive. They may find that it takes more time and they can only provide themselves with part of their water requirements for a while. But the fact is a mars colony paid for with private funds must be totally self-sufficient with regard to essential life support requirements within a few missions or colonization is over.

The paper is correct in identifying heavy equipment as a requirement for rapid growth. The mistake is thinking it can't be built on mars with the skills and capability of a few dozen colonists. (Update: Two high school students build tractor.) They absolutely must be able to build and repair equipment using only local resources. They can if the designs are appropriate for their situation. The paper then goes on about some specifics...

Power is required for industry. Let's assume nuclear is not a near term option and no nuke power plant will be sent from earth. They can and will bring light weight, low cost, solar cells from earth to get them started. They can then make more panels ISRU. However, would it be enough for industry? It does not have to be. The requirements for industry do not need to be constant. Instead, enough to complete a process is the requirement. So assuming there is never enough solar available, there would still be enough to make methane and oxygen. That can produce enough energy for any industrial process they may need. They can always make more fuel. With industry they can make the equipment required to use that fuel. This power is also a backup for solar in case of the dreaded months long sand storms. Eventually, without a government to tell them they can't, they will also develop nuclear energy (my bet is on thorium.)

A greenhouse also requires a lot of power for growing plants. The sun can provide part of it, but since it is half as strong as it is on Earth, a complementary and artificial illumination will be deployed to make farming efficient. LEDs or other lighting devices can be used for that purpose.

Another false assumption. The sun can provide all of it. Perhaps mirrors will be used to concentrate it as suggested in his slow development section. Mirrors are simple. Artificial lighting is not a serious solution. Enough production is addressed by having enough farms. The plants will grow.

Long range pressurized rovers will make it possible to go far and explore the surface in an efficient way.

The assumption here is these have to be high tech. equipment from earth. Pressurized rovers actually make it more difficult to explore compared to unpressurized since you are less likely to take the time to go through an airlock for marginal possibilities. Instead, the rover can be two low tech parts. A simple electric tractor that does nothing but provide a fifth wheel hitch. This pulls an even simpler trailer that can have many adjustable configurations loaded on it as needed. Both of these could be easy for the colonists to build ISRU.

New structures will be built for storage, habitation, industrial development, research, etc. A bulldozer for clearing and a crane for carrying would probably be chosen to make it easy and fast.

Of course they will need bulldozers. But of a design they can build ISRU themselves. They don't need a crane immediately, although it is a simpler thing to build. The dozer itself is a sort of crane.

In order to extract water or to get access to underground mines, a drill is required. Then, if large quantities have to be carried, a truck is also needed.

The rover with trailer is a truck. So is the dozer. A drill is a simple implement powered hydraulically by the dozer.

Automation is a key issue for the maintenance of the base.

No. Dependable systems that do not require computers are.

[Paraphased] There is a risk of losing tools and their corresponding capability.

[Paraphased] Tools wear out. 

A risk that must be mitigated by never depending on a tool that can't be produced ISRU.

How many persons are required to develop and maintain a modern industry?

This question includes the same false assumption. Mars does not require modern industry, it requires sufficient industry. Modern technology will develop over time as the colony population grows. To answer the question, based on the industrial ecology needed (which is the only intelligent way to answer that question) as little as a few dozen with the right skills are required. More hands simply increase industrial capacity and capability.

Then we get into the central planning fallacy...

What  industrial processes?  How much power?  How much  time? These important questions have to be addressed by engineers to assess the sustainability of a modern Martian base and to determine the feasibility of the fast development scenario.

Yes, certain core processes have to be identified and colonists trained to do them. More likely, colonists will be selected from people like machinists and chemists that already have the skills. Beyond that they just need to be over supplied to start so they can expand their capabilities over time. New colonists can bring new capabilities with them. In a free society, each colonist can concentrate on different things needed.

Now about the slow development section...

All engines are complex and can not be easily repaired.

Simply not true. It is a question of the chosen design.

...it is doubtful that any vehicle could be built on Mars without a modern industry.

False assumption. Again, it is a question of design and industrial ecology.

The simplest vehicle is the bicycle, eventually with three or four wheels. It is perhaps possible to build one using in situ resources and by means of simple industrial processes. However, such a vehicle can not help in transporting heavy loads and moving far and fast.

Thanks for the imagery. Try riding a bicycle in a space suit on a martian sand dune! Martians will be iron workers (15% of soil.) Heavy concentration of iron is toxic to plants so removing the iron is part of the production of soil for farms. The vehicles produced will handle any heavy load. Range can be enhanced to any they require precisely because they will be able to haul heavy loads of fuel. These vehicle are not required to move fast but will certainly be capable of moving at faster than a walk. Somebody is going to build dune buggies just for the fun of it.

However, some electronic devices are part of the life support system, the spacesuit, the rover, etc. They play an important role and they can not be replaced by other tools.

No. That would be a really, really bad design. Computers and electronics coming from earth will not be a part of any essential equipment. With experience, the martian colonists will design and produce a spacesuit suited for their environment and not costing millions of dollars to produce. Fabrics will be an industry some colonists will pursue in a growing free economy aided by chemists and others. Most of the time martians will work in shirt sleeve environments in large environmentally controlled living and working spaces because it's just easier and more efficient. Only a fraction of martians will even need spacesuits (but all will have one hanging in the closet because they arrived in one.)

...it is [not] possible to avoid the use of high-tech devices.

To get to mars this is true. To live on mars this is a false assumption. This is why mars is such a good choice for colonization. Also, much of the electronics they do feel the need for (radios?) can be made from discrete components they can make ISRU.

Finally the paper describes some hurdles...

Access to water; Food production; Gathering ores; Not enough energy for specific needs.

Taking the last first. If they have enough energy to start with, they can grow to any future requirement. They will have more than enough even with just the solar panels they bring with them from earth to do that.

The most important ore is iron. Their biggest problem with that is NOT gathering it. Imagine future kids having the daily chore of gathering soil and dust off boots to produce iron nuggets as part of their homework education. They will need vehicles made from iron to gather other minerals.

For food production they will need water, soil and plastic. Nitrates will probably have to come from the atmosphere at first. Chemistry required. Living soil from earth will be a valuable import.

Water is the first essential (power gives you oxygen or they could just wet the ground.) It appears this will not be a problem but is yet to be determined for sure. We know the water is there. We suspect there is enough in the soil that drilling may not be required.

the quality of spare parts might be uncertain if the metallurgic process is not driven by high tech sensors and devices.

What did the industrial revolution ever do before high tech. came along? This is called manufacturing your own roadblocks. It's all about mindset.

It is difficult to establish a clear strategy for the first stages of the settlement of a Martian base.

That mindset and it's false choices make it appear so. Lose that mindset and it's all rather straight forward. The insistence that capabilities will degrade is just weird. Let's not call it a base either. We are talking about founding a growing, thriving colony of free people.

Finally, the central question...

Is the risk acceptable? Update: I look forward to Rand's discussion of risk.

Yes, but not based on anything discussed in this paper. Let's discuss what's missing.

Funding.

It is unlikely that the cost to individual colonists will come down anytime soon to a point where many or even any could afford to go. However, with the right plan they can go for free and arrive with more than enough resources to pursue their own personal happiness. They are risking their lives to improve humanity. That deserves a reward that covers that risk. A one sq. km. property claim could be worth millions to each colonist and provide a lifetime of investment capital.

Forty-two colonists may be transported to mars for a cost as low as $3b. This is within the range of a single company or group of such. It's not about the cost (which everyone keeps focusing on) it's the return on investment. According to the terms of a legally binding settlement charter (that I propose) they could claim a thousand sq. km. for each colonist they transport (free to the colonist.) Each thousand sq. km. claim is potentially worth a billion dollars. So if they transported 40 colonists at a cost of $10b, they would make a $30b profit as the value of their land matures. This value matures the faster they bring colonists. Which makes land speculation from earth buyers come into play. Mars has 144 million sq. km. of land. They will not run out anytime soon.

Having this correct mindset we can go now. SpaceX will have the Dragon 2 Red Lander ready in about 3 years. Everything else will be ready before that. Will we be ready?

I would like to tackle this paper (pdf) in a future post.

John says, "Some of the high technology available from Earth will be a highly desirable partner to the low tech solutions you are advocating."

John is absolutely right. For example, at the end of this post I discuss 3D printing which requires computers that martians must import from earth in order to use. My point is that 3D printer should not be on the critical path of survival. My funding plan assumes existing colonist will probably pay new colonist to include products from earth in their mass allotment which they get for free as part of their passage in my settlement plan.