I preferred Cruz until he began his delegate manipulations in a major way.
Some of the delegate tactics he's using, I don't much mind (though I think they system needs fixing for next time). Some, though, are flat out efforts to disenfranchise voters, and that's intolerable to me.
If Trump does not win on the first ballot, most of the delegates become unbound. Cruz has managed to pack a few delegations with Cruz supporters, BUT, just like Trump, his delegates become unbound too. And most of them aren't loyal to Cruz. What they largely are is loyal to their state party leadership, in other words, party establishment. So, my prediction is that on the second ballot, Cruz's delegate count drops slightly from the first ballot - and he'll be well short of the first ballot.
Result? I strongly suspect that neither Trump or Cruz will win if this goes past the first ballot. My guess is Kasich (ugh) or maybe Rubio (ugh). And, of course, a nomination stolen that way guarantees a loss in November.
okay, I was about to ramble on about Rule 40 (b) and how it (combined with Cruz's machinations) can deny Trump the nomination even if he's got 1237 delegates, but that's too long for a comment, so I'll put together a post on Rule 40 (B) and its implications, and just how much power the chairman of the convention (Paul Ryan) will have - and what may well happen.
3 comments:
I preferred Cruz until he began his delegate manipulations in a major way.
Some of the delegate tactics he's using, I don't much mind (though I think they system needs fixing for next time). Some, though, are flat out efforts to disenfranchise voters, and that's intolerable to me.
Trump has to win the first ballet if he wants to stop Cruz. It's going to be interesting.
I disagree, sort of.
If Trump does not win on the first ballot, most of the delegates become unbound. Cruz has managed to pack a few delegations with Cruz supporters, BUT, just like Trump, his delegates become unbound too. And most of them aren't loyal to Cruz. What they largely are is loyal to their state party leadership, in other words, party establishment. So, my prediction is that on the second ballot, Cruz's delegate count drops slightly from the first ballot - and he'll be well short of the first ballot.
Result? I strongly suspect that neither Trump or Cruz will win if this goes past the first ballot. My guess is Kasich (ugh) or maybe Rubio (ugh). And, of course, a nomination stolen that way guarantees a loss in November.
okay, I was about to ramble on about Rule 40 (b) and how it (combined with Cruz's machinations) can deny Trump the nomination even if he's got 1237 delegates, but that's too long for a comment, so I'll put together a post on Rule 40 (B) and its implications, and just how much power the chairman of the convention (Paul Ryan) will have - and what may well happen.
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