Estimates of the cost of a human Mars exploration program: $450 billion [for the Space Exploration Initiative] to $30 billion [for Mars Direct.] Mars Direct achieves its low cost in two ways: by using only existing technologies, adapted for the specifics of a Mars mission, and by generating rocket fuel for the return mission.
Zubrin fudged existing tech. with the assumption of heavy lift, but we all have to fudge a bit since existing tech. isn't quite there yet. My reference mission knocks us down from $30b to under $5b. First, as Buzz says, the Pilgrims didn't turn around at Plymouth rock so that saves half the launches. Second, by choosing technology with a better certainty of its costs. The SLS has wasted a lot of money and will continue to until its eventual termination. SpaceX already has bigger rockets on the drawing board but will only make them when they make economic sense. Until then, the Falcon Heavy should define the limits for our mission hardware giving us a known mass for a known cost (within about 20%.)
Now instead of rocket fuel for a return trip, we are creating engine fuel from solar panels. This fuel is used for creating energy for industrial processes instead of wasting it on return trips.
- Zubrin's cost is $7.5b per tourist (they aren't staying.) Four at a time.
- Mars One's cost is $1.5b per colonist. Four at a time.
- Mine are $100m per colonist. Forty-eight at a time (to really get things started.)
$100m per colonist is a state change from too expensive to self financing. Self financing because it requires nothing more than impulse buying that has already been demonstrated by the American public. They already spend $25 on worthless mars deeds. $100 an acre for the real deal is not even a hurdle. The only hurdle is some entity with the resources to see the light.
Time continues to pass. Still we wait.
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