Economic nonsense

I'm told that colonizing mars is economic nonsense. The cost certainly is high. Sent in bulk (dozens at a time) it could be about $50m to $100m per colonist.

Even if this cost comes down, it probably will never come down enough that the colonists could pay for it themselves. This is why I came up with a plan where they travel for free and arrive with resources so they may have liberty.

However, that plan still has the problem in that somebody must initially come up with money that is hard to come by and could be profitably invested in ways that are a lot lower risk. So why not combine my plan with others?

Mars One thinks they can come up with $6b using a reality tv format. I estimate they will probably only come up with a third of that at best; but it turns out, if they combine it with other plans, that's more than enough. So it would be reasonable to assume they could make $20m to 50m annually with a reality show depending on their skill at presenting it. The thing is, they don't need that much skill. Have you seen what people are willing to watch? They just have to avoid being like NASA tv which has perfected the art of being irrelevant. NASA works hard not to have drama. Drama and team challenges are exactly what you need for a hit show.

Bigelow has a plan to offer an alternative to nations wanting to do research on the very limited capacity I.S.S. His plan involves two BA330 forming his Alpha Station. To buy and launch one BA330 into orbit cost about $200m. Each one time investment of $200m would have an annual profit of $234 million for as many modules as market capacity turns out to be. This could turn out to be quite a lot as even small nations would find this valuable research affordable.

Then there are people like Dennis Tito, willing to put perhaps $200m into the Inspiration Mars mission with no expectation of profit. Some of these angel investors might turn to Mars One if it's seen as viable.

So we have this worthless planet (compared to asteroids that are worth trillions. Got it.) Until people actually possess and develop it. What might be a path to getting there?

We start with the Mars One reality show assuming a more realistic $50m (rather than the $600m) annual revenue they expect. Their reality show starts with ten teams of four crew each. They plan to send one crew in ten years to mars. We are going to make some slight modification to their plans.  We start by changing that to 15 teams of four each for a total of 60 rather than 40.

We make a first goal of putting a BA330 in orbit (combined with the upper stage that put them there they have 90% of a ship. Each could take six to mars orbit.) If they are making $50m per year, $200m is within their ability to get financing. This first one will be used as in Bigelow's plan to upgrade their annual income from $50m to $250m. The next year, they put a second BA300 in orbit (they can either finance this one or just pay for it, whichever makes more sense.) Now they can add a new feature to their astronaut training program: real zero g training. Each BA330 can now be host to half of three teams. Each team would have two in orbit and two on the ground. They would rotate teams (limited by the $120m cost so they may only do this as part of a special season finale which they use to build up viewership.) The challenges would include ship activities and telerobotic activities in concert with their team mates on the ground to make habitats from local resources. Those on the ground would have to show proficiency in producing items ISRU from mars regolith simulants.

The other modification is they don't go to mars 4 at a time every two years in a modified Dragon. The first mission sends 12 in two BA330 class ships (this will require four or five years of income to pay for fuel.) Landers will be waiting for them in orbit and with supplies on the surface (each lander will cost 9 months of income to pay for. They will need three.) Two years later they send 48 in two BA700 class ships (they should accumulate the expenses before sending the first mission.) This requires 12 landers or perhaps the MCT will be available. These people may remain reality tv employees, but they are also free people each making their one sq. km. ownership claim. Mars One agrees to the terms of the settlement charter and claims 60,000 sq. km. giving them 30 million half acre plots on mars for resale as part of their reality tv show. Property owners on earth would be eligible for prizes related to the properties they purchase; perhaps including a locally produced rover they could control.

Those sixty first colonists form the first of many 100 (10 x 10) sq. km. townships and elect a mayor and get on with their lives. Subsequent tv seasons form new townships with new groups of 60 trainees.

This doesn't mean everyone is living in spread out isolation. Once it's been show that living on mars is possible and that land can have a resale value, others will be able to make better business plans based on claims according to the terms of the settlement charter to add to the population. As transportation costs come down, more will be able to participate as the business cases start to close. Scientists could then be sent to mars not having to worry about survival that the colony itself provides. If worried about contamination, they're rovers can be sent separately and directly to different parts of the planet.

By emphasizing skills that allow ISRU independence we avoid the suicide mission of the original Mars One plan that is too dependent on life support from earth.

Forming townships allows more property values to appreciate quicker than if there were only one population center. This would also allow local government diversity not dominated by a few.