Snow

That's something you don't see in Phoenix. 7000 foot elevation is a different story.

I now have some access to the internet and will try to get mobile access in a month or two.

Leaving Phoenix

I'm leaving Phoenix today or tomorrow. Yesterday I cleaned out my car. Now I have to pack it with what ever I'm taking with me. My anxiety and stress have pegged the meter. I expect this will be my last time in Phoenix. I don't see any reason for coming back.

What we wont see tomorrow

Rand has a heads up on hearings.

The government wants to take over private companies and ruin what makes them great (because only the government knows how to do things right, right?) We need to break free and offer the future an alternative.

It's not about the technology and the cost (while too high) are not prohibitive.

What is lacking is vision. Space has unlimited assets that people want that have nothing to do with sending material back to earth. Earth has something space needs to be viable... lots of people willing to go. Space has real estate. What those people need to go is funding. It's already economically viable with a great ROI (800%?) for any banks that agree to a settlement charter.

A mars settlement charter might say that every individual is allowed a reasonable claim by possession (one sq. km. is enough to make this economically viable.)  The banks in the charter will finance anyone willing to accept the terms of the charter (and become instant millionaires with the stroke of a pen.)

Suppose it costs [you pick any amount] to get a colonist to the surface of mars with sufficient supplies. A bank loans them that money for which the colonist agrees to develop and sell plots to future colonists. The bank expects to get 800% ROI or more to be competitively decided (by a number of banks offering different terms.) Zubrin has describe a 50m round hobby farm that could feed three. Let's assume that includes a habitat and so is the minimum plot size for sale. A one sq. km. claim would include 400 quarter hectare plots not all of which need be resold. Which means, to break even a colonist would need to sell a developed quarter hectare plot for just 0.25% over [the amount you picked divided by 400.]

New colonists should have a home waiting for them before they even leave earth orbit. It makes sense for them to buy it rather than trying to develop it when they get there. The cost to develop it is the same whether they do it themselves or a colonist already on mars does it. The difference is they can focus on other things when they land and will be able to take a different mix of supplies because essentials will come with the plot. They pay a few percent more for their travel package (totally financed by a settlement charter bank) to save months of time getting a start on arrival.

Suppose a colonist chooses to provide 160 plots for resale. Here is one potential scenario.

Adding lander capability

The SpaceX Dragon is soon to become the Dragon lander capable of landing not just on earth but on other rocks as well.

SpaceX can now start building the hardware at the heart of its innovative launch abort system.

Which is much more than just an abort system. Other than in testing they may never actually use it for any abort, but they will be using it to land. Expect to see Dragons on the surface of many rocks including the moon and mars.

Tax the rich

We're just about a year away from the next presidential election. It's time to give Obama a judo throw. Let him have his 'Tax the Rich' bill on it's own. The results are predictable. It will get conservatives elected and insure Obama doesn't get a second term. Then the next president can throw out the whole tax law to replace it with a flat income tax or fair tax.

Otherwise, the demagogue in chief (DiC) will have his issue.

USB explained

Link

No business going to mars

...if you can't do a Mars orbit rendezvous you have no business going to Mars.

Got me thinking. To reduce the cost of mars missions most things should not travel with the colonists. They should either be waiting in orbit or on the surface. However, safety requires some redundancy of things that do travel with the colonists.

We can put things on the surface of mars with a certain amount of accuracy (going up) and cost (going down.) Before they learn to live on mars ISRU we can keep dozens alive on the surface indefinitely (although healthy is debatable we shouldn't be afraid to find out directly and deal with it. Not going is not an option.)

People going to mars initially should be planning for a one way trip. This doesn't mean they never come home. It just means getting them home is a different mission for sometime in the future. They should go with the intent to settle or not go at all.

For best results we should be generous in over supplying them and getting enough hands on the surface to do meaningful work. My proposal is a dozen researchers on the first trip followed by several dozen on the second trip. First job, setting up their habitats and power. Second job, water ISRU and agriculture. Once they can produce enough food, water, air and power the next wave of colonists can follow.

These researcher start out in earth orbit in two ships that need refueling.* Mars landers have been sent ahead and wait in mars orbit. Resupply can also be waiting in mars orbit so the missions have some flexibility and margin of safety. The mars landers should also be reusable accent vehicles but that isn't essential.

By sending everything we can ahead using the least costly route and planning for a one way mission we can move toward mars settlement much faster than some paralysis by analysis methods. Looking before we leap is smart, but not taking the leap at all is not.

Update: *The ships start in orbit needing refueling. The passenger go to orbit when the ships are fueled and ready to go. There would likely be an exchange of astronauts. Those refueling the ships return to earth while others go to mars.

Obama killing christians

When I heard we were sending troops to Uganda I knew before reading it would be to kill Christians.

Update: This is not an endorsement of the LRA. It's root.

Imagining a new car

Start with a Tesla roadster or sedan. Take out the transmission. Take out 90% of the batteries. Replace the wheels (keep the tires) with regenerative braking electric motors. High torque in the rear and high speed in the front. Add a generator directly driven by a Stirling motor. The heat source is a small self contained thorium/laser unit that you replace every twenty years. You have about 400hp. Add a computer to manage it all.

If you prefer to refuel every 200 miles you could go with this...

Trade war

Isn't that how the made the great depression? Speaking of the thirties.

Income drops off cliff during Obama

OWS is about more than just the unemployed...

A Long, Steep Drop for Americans' Standard of Living

Thor to the rescue!

...using just 8 gm of thorium in a car should mean it would never need refueling.

Well, that's the kiss of death, isn't it.

...developing a portable and usable turbine and generator is proving to be a tougher task than the laser-thorium unit.

Did you get that? Nuclear power is the easy part! Makes me wonder if mating it with a Stirling engine might be the way to go?

Path of decline?

Losing our exceptionalism is the desired outcome of some.

The word on soft

But among the hundreds of thousands of your readers who didn't know you were a sap until you told them three years later, soft choices have hard consequences.

You handed a multitrillion-dollar economy to a community organizer and you're surprised that it led to more taxes, more bureaucracy, more regulation, more barnacles on an already rusting hulk? 

Obama would not have withstood scrutiny in any society with a healthy, skeptical press. 

...there's nothing soft about a dead-parrot economy, a flat-line jobs market, regulatory sclerosis, "green jobs" multibillion-dollar squandering and a mountain of dead Mexicans.

Read it.

Also... Vodkapundit.

Paid better too

Schools just don't teach a person to be a good programmer. It really is about the person. I remember reading that programmers without a degree often make more money than those that do.

I do know that many of the people I've known that taught programming wouldn't make it in the real world outside of academics.

Update: speaking of teaching and income, shouldn't we teach kids about investing as part of general knowledge?

How fortunate are we?

They have lowered the estimate of earth threatening asteroids.

What struck me was how circular earths orbit is compared to both mars and venus.

Business model for mars settlement

For me, this was the exciting statement to read...

"Apparently [SpaceX is] proposing a business venture for a Mars settlement."

While the linked article had great information, I was a bit disappointed that it didn't really include a business model. However, we do have another data point for a business model...

Musk suggested a ticket price of $500,000 per person.

So here's my business model...

They put together a group of banks willing to support a mars settlement charter.

That charter specifies the conditions of a loan to anybody that wants to go to mars... anybody! They don't even need good credit, all transactions will be within this group of banks ensuring payments of the mars settlement loan package will be paid.

Assume one million dollars to travel to mars fully supplied for two years (this assumes Musk is giving a lowball figure and life support is non recycled.)

Assume a half hectare (time to use metric rather than non metric acres) plot developed for habitation is included in the travel package (life support for three.) This plot is selected by the traveler from a catalog of completely developed plots (with specified parameters) and purchased from an earlier traveler that has organized the work to completion on mars from a part of his own one square kilometer claim. Every person with boots on mars can make a single claim. This is legal by historical precedent. Everyone part of the charter will enforce this.

The bank gets paid immediately from the sale of this plot so the traveler has no down payment to make. A willingness to go and work in support of the charter is all that is required. They are free do to anything else they desire.

Suppose it cost $50k in material from earth to develop a habitable plot and six months of labor (another $50k.) They sell the plot for something in the neighborhood of $200k. The settler getting $50k and the bank getting $50k toward the payment of the mortgage loan. Assume 80% utilization one square kilometer provides 160 half hectare plots (from 400 quarter hectares.) This provides a potential eight million dollar return on a one million dollar investment. Plenty of room for banks and settlers to make a deal that works.

SpaceX has what it takes to make that work. Banks have an incentive to make it work. This provides a life time of income for the settlers. What's the hold up?

Update: Why this is not a Ponzi scheme...

Children will eventually be born and grow up and marry on mars. Which should have a vibrant economy by then. Suppose a couple buy a developed plot for themselves for $200k (the kids are moving out of the house folks.) This is not part of a mars settlement loan package; it's in addition to it. The two are paying only $100k each rather than a million each (no addition mortgage requirement on them.) They each have also gotten their own undeveloped one square kilometer claim... until the 144 million square kilometers on mars runs out. They could of course build rather than buy. Same choice as on earth.

Update 2: Where is this young couple going to get $200k for a home of their own? They have collateral: two square kilometer of undeveloped land. Their will be plenty of work to provide income to pay back a mortgage. This second generation will also have less debt burden. Ownership of real estate distributed among a population is the most important factor in economic growth. Too bad we can't learn that here on earth.

A physical threat of violence

My cousin 'Deano' (by my mothers marriage to a big family) came into my room and threatened me today. He was some what drunk which tends to bring out the belligerence in him. He's never done that to me before but has shown anger to others in the household. Worse in some ways is he lied to my aunt in saying that I was saying contemptuous things about my aunt in an attempt to create some bad feelings. My aunt and I get along well so I don't see anything coming from that.

I do not like being threatened. I am certain the threats might potentially lead to some dangerous confrontation. If you don't count him standing over me waving a glass beer bottle at me while being belligerent. He wasn't interested in listening to me, but I told him if he kept it up I would call the police and have him arrested. I tried to use a firm calm voice that would get through his beer fog. I'm not in good health and would really like to avoid any attacks coming from him. I'm really not sure how I should handle this going forward since we both live in the same house. I'm going to be locking my bedroom door more often in the future. I would not live under such conditions if I had the financial ability to do otherwise. I may have to change my living conditions anyway which would be difficult.

It's very disappointing. I'm going to wait to see if this just blows over.

UPDATE: I talked to the cops. They said they couldn't do anything because nobody was physically hurt. Then, I went over to my aunts daughter, the only cousin I trust, to compare some notes after she got home from work and fed her kids. Between us we discovered another important point. Deano has been playing Wormtongue with my aunt for at least the past month concerning the both of us in different situations. She hasn't been coming by as often as she used to and Deano turns out to be the reason why.

I've considered leaving, but it would be better for both my aunt and her daughter if Deano leaves. He thinks of himself as a chess player, but he just made a huge blunder last night. In this civilized world, perhaps a person can't defend themselves, but if I do end up in the hospital I can make damned sure the cops do their job.

Hit piece too subtle-y?

Sarah Palin says, "Does a title shackle a person?"

Sheila Marikar titles her article... Sarah Palin: ‘Is a Title and Campaign Too Shackle-y?’

It's probably an attempts at humor riffing off of 'hopey/changey'

How about giving serious consideration to the question? No need perhaps. Sarah will do it for this reporter.

A Great Speech

Just read it. A review.