Sunday, March 20, 2016

Too late for Cruz?

AZ may be the last straw. Trump will then need about 50% of remaining delegates while Cruz would need about 80% (I'm too lazy to be more exact.)

This article makes a good point.

Playing politics at the convention to deny Trump would be a huge mistake IMHO. Trump voters may not riot, but they are certainly ready to take on the elites in some capacity. How much injustice will they tolerate? Make no doubt, majority doesn't mean half in a multi-way race.

Oh, and saying more voted against than for ignores the reality. That argument is only valid in a pure two person race.


C J said...


By my back of the envelope calculations, Cruz needs about 86% of the remaining (pre-March 22nd Az-UT) pledged delegates, because he, like Trump, needs pledged delegates, and not all the delegates remaining on the table are pledged ones.

Some of the state remaining are proportional, so Cruz's path at this point is win all winner-take-all, and win heavily all proportional states. Losing AZ would men he needs to win the proportional ones by landslides - all of them.

As for Kasich's path, it's not all that hard - he just has to repeal the laws of mathematics and get over 109& of the remaining delegates.

I've long preferred Cruz, but unless something major changes, I'll be voting Trump - mainly to avoid a brokered convention, which IMHO would be a disaster.

My current wild prediction: Trump/Cruz 2016.

ken_anthony said...

Want to see heads explode?... Trump/Palin.