Monday, March 25, 2013

Will the charter work?

History is full of colonies that failed. What makes my charter work? (On mars.)

The failures were economic (starvation) and warfare (including less intense conflict.) Following will also be a discussion of why these claim sizes.

Warfare
(and lessor means)

There are no natives on mars (perhaps on Barsoom?) so warfare may come from other non member colonists (it is presumed that members of the charter can settle disputes amicably within their ranks.) What is the risk from this concern?

First they have to get to mars. This isn't easy. I don't see any other plan that would accomplish this like my plan will. All other plans I'm aware of require the colonists to pay their way which should severely limit their numbers. But let's assume some country makes a huge claim on mars (even all of it) and starts transporting people there. With billions of hectares available, population pressure will not lead to war for at least more than century by which time the charter legal precedent will have been acknowledged in most countries. The early martians will be heroes and will have defenders and supporters on earth. The most probable form of warfare will be legal and will ultimately end in the colonists favor due to possession which is historically supported. In the unlikely event of actual war, the members numbers may provide all the advantage they need. Only time will tell.

Economics
(will they starve?)

They will have some level of food production the moment they land. This will improve as they gain experience. Seeds are just about the perfect space traveler. Each settler, by their own choices, will bring variety (more over time) beyond any foreseeable need. They will do the same with non seed plants and animals because supply and demand will provide the economic incentives. Mars has sufficient nutrients, water and energy for farming. Industry will develop over time to make it affordable in great quantities. Soil, fertilizer and UV plastic (for 10 psi enclosures) production will be among many mars industries that will thrive in a free market.

They will all be property owners. Abundance comes from free trade which is the source of all wealth. Each person is individually responsible for their own supplies. There is no welfare, no government sponsor, no corporation that owns them. But that doesn't mean they all have to be farmers anymore than all people on earth are farmers. What will happen is the colony will determine how much they can produce and that will determine how many can join their colony. A single half acre plot (40m x 50m) can hold one 40m Zubrin hobby farm. This should feed 3 to 4. Each colonist starts with about 500 plots. The only way they starve is if they don't work. Without welfare, they will work.

Claim Size
(what happens when they run out)

The transportation companies will lose this particular incentive from the charter to bring new colonists as land becomes owned by others. Divide 144 million by 1001 says that shouldn't happen until after mars has well over 100,000 colonists which should be enough to keep things going. With mars as an example, other rocks in the solar system then become viable. The settlement charter limits how fast a transportation company can make claims which will serve as a buffer as land becomes scarce. Doesn't it amaze you to even consider land becoming scarce?

In time, transportation cost may come within the ability of a family to pay for it themselves. If not, they can send their seed which colonists may choose to purchase. Most people will live and die on one world. This does not mean worlds will not be claimed and humans will expand into the universe.

A square kilometer is 100 hectares or about 500 half acre plots. Since the colonists travel to mars free, they will also have their savings some of which they will probably have spent on their first habitat. According to the charter, they will arrive with 1,000 kg of supplies (minus themselves and spacesuit mass.) The transportation company has the incentive to keep every colonist alive until they make a claim on mars. It is the colonists responsibility to keep themselves alive after that. There mass allotment should allow them to live for months to years depending on what they bring. All colonist should determine that by checking on the status of the colony itself. If they don't and they die, that is their own fault. Perhaps their heirs will do better?

There will be no job shortage. Labor will be in short supply as far as we can see into the future. The pay should be good. In hard times, people will have land to sell to get by. Their is no unemployment insurance (unless some entrepreneur offer some. Remember, government is the problem.) All martians will have the basic knowledge of how to get water (which provides oxygen) baked from the abundant supply in the soil along with recycling, so the price should be low because others will be in competition selling it. The water supply in tanks should be public information. If water should become scarce, basic economics says they will increase production while for a time higher prices will reduce waste. That's true of everything in an unregulated economy.

Land is the colonists basic resource. Selling 500 undeveloped plots at $100 per plot would give them a nest egg of $50k. However, wiser would be to sell developed plots for thousands of dollars in profit per plot. This makes every martian a potential millionaire by simply saving the first $2000 even if they spend the rest. A well developed property may provide tens of thousands in profit. Vendors will profit as well, such a the guy/gal selling marble?

It's reasonable to assume a transportation cost of $100m per colonist paid by the transportation company. For this they get about 500,000 plots they can sell. Does this mean they have to sell them for $200 each to break even? No. Done right, all the expense of transporting colonists can be paid for from other potential profits. Which makes the sale of plots pure profit.

Is one sq. km. too spread out for mutual support? Probably so, but not for everyone. They will own it, but they don't have to live on it. They can swap land with others to live closer together. The value of land will depend a lot on location, but all locations should grow in value as they are developed and new colonists arrive. With 7% of Americans wanting to go (over 20 million people) which they can do for free and arrive with resources; The land rush should grow the economy for everybody. New colonists will probably have about six months to establish themselves starting with their first home on arrival. They will have a choice of farming their abundant property or getting a job (likely a combination of both) or dying. Regardless of their choice, the colony will thrive.

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References:

THE HOMESTEAD ACT AND THE LABOR SURPLUS
Homestead Acts
Federal Land Policy and Management Act
General Mining Act of 1872
Dominion Lands Act
Selection (Australian history)
Donation Land Claim Act of 1850
Land run
Land Act of 1804
Preemption Act of 1841
About the Homestead Act
The Homestead Act of 1862, Text.

The Debate and Consequences of the Homestead Act of 1862 (pdf)
Colony of Virginia
Jamestown, Virginia
Colonial Charters, Grants and Related Documents

Mayflower Compact
Jamestown Timeline
Another general timeline

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